CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten said Monday that Republicans could hold onto their Senate majority thanks to historically bad polling for Democrats.
Democrats maintain a five-point lead over Republicans in generic congressional polling as of Monday, a slimmer margin than the 11 and 8-point leads they had ahead of the 2006 and 2018 midterm elections when a Republican president held office. Enten argued on “CNN News Central” that a five-point lead is not enough for Democrats to take back the Senate.
“Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30, depending on what polls you look at,” Enten said. “You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they’re just only sort of slightly ahead … I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map. Why do I say that? Because let’s just take a look. GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49.”
WATCH:
Democrats would flip Maine and North Carolina with its current polling numbers, while Republicans would hold onto Alaska, South Carolina, Ohio and Texas, which President Donald Trump won by more than ten points in the 2024 election. From 2016 until the present, Democrats have never won a state where Trump won by those margins during the previous midterm elections.
“Because take a look, during the Trump era, look at this, flip the Senate seat, midterm and presidential years, states the other party won by 10 plus points in the last presidential election, zero, zero, zero times did a party flip those states,” Enten said. “So we’re talking about places like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, where Trump won by double digits. Which is why the Democrats might need a bigger lead than they have now if the Senate is really in play.”
Republicans also have a net favorability that is five point higher than the Democrats, though historically Democrats had higher approval ratings during a Republican presidency. Democrats had an 18-point lead in 2006 and a 12-point lead in 2018.
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