China’s critical mineral stranglehold could slip if President Donald Trump succeeds in Venezuela, leading several energy analysts to conclude that the U.S. action there is not primarily about oil.
Unlike previous U.S. resource campaigns that targeted oil, and despite continued public emphasis on narcotics and petroleum, several analysts contend moving in on Venezuela is a strategic minerals play. Post shale-revolution, America has no shortage of oil, but China monopolizes the rare earth market and Venezuelan minerals are purportedly channeled to the Orient via “Chinese” buyers.
“Venezuela is not just an oil story. More importantly, it is a critical minerals and geopolitical leverage story. Beyond crude, Venezuela holds significant reserves of minerals such as gold, rare earth elements, and other strategic inputs that China has aggressively targeted across Latin America,” American Energy Institute CEO Jason Isaac told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “While the West has focused on sanctions and oil licenses, Beijing has quietly expanded its footprint through mining deals, infrastructure financing and opaque joint ventures that operate outside transparent markets. Any U.S. engagement with Venezuela that ignores the critical minerals dimension risks ceding another strategic supply chain to China.”
Trump announced Tuesday that Venezuela’s interim authorities would be “turning over between 30 and 50 billion barrels of high quality, sanctioned oil” to “benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.” Russia and China have been fraternizing with Venezuela and profiting from its oil industry, with Russia operating the most prominent company left in Venezuela and most of the country’s crude oil exports flowing to China.
American control over Venezuelan oil and critical minerals may adversely affect Russia’s Ukraine war and China’s race for technological dominance.
Rare earths are a group of 17 metallic elements and critical minerals include minerals and rare earths deemed essential to the American economy and national security. Rare earths and critical minerals are used in data centers, precision-guided weapons and to help prevent corrosion on munitions.
America currently imports about 80% of the rare earths it consumes, largely from China, which maintains a chokehold on the global critical mineral supply chain and refining capacity. China demonstrated willingness to leverage this monopoly in 2025 to the detriment of U.S. military supply chains, restricting imports after Trump imposed stringent tariffs on its political adversary.
Tracy Shuchart, CEO and founder of Hilltower Resource Advisors, argued on her website that “the oil narrative is theater,” and that “Venezuela became the only location in the Western Hemisphere where all three major US adversaries established simultaneous operational presence.”
“Post-operation control allows the United States to reconfigure mineral extraction under conditions that prevent Chinese processing monopolization, dismantle Iranian manufacturing facilities, and expel Russian advisers,” she continued. “This is not about seizing resources for profit. This is about denying all three major adversaries access to strategic assets and removing their combined military presence from the Western Hemisphere in the same way that Iraq was about ensuring oil flows remained under conditions favorable to U.S. strategic interests.”
Venezuela reportedly estimates that it has over $200 billion in rare earth elements, though some energy policy experts assert that reliable data are scarce. The U.S. is aware of Venezuela’s mineral resource potential, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick calling for a revival of Venezuela’s mining sector Sunday.
“You have steel, you have minerals, all the critical minerals, they have a great mining history that’s gone rusty,” Lutnick said, besides Trump on Air Force One. “President Trump is going to fix it and bring it back.”
The Department of War (DOW) will oversee roughly $7.5 billion in critical minerals funding under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Notably, a Department of Commerce and DOW‑backed partnership with Korea Zinc is helping to build a critical mineral smelting facility in Tennessee with a total planned investment of about $7.4 billion.
The Pentagon is reportedly seeking to procure the some of the minerals Venezuela hosts for its stockpile. The Venezuelan Mining Corporation currently operates collection hubs for cassiterite and coltan, according to a local report, and tantalum, derived from coltan ore, is also reportedly on the Pentagon’s stockpile wish list.
Shuchart speculated that “the Pentagon planned this operation around breaking Chinese resource control, eliminating Iranian manufacturing capability, and expelling Russian military presence because generals understand strategic vulnerabilities in contemporary threat environments where China, Iran, and Russia operate as coordinated adversaries.”
Venezuela has lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements and gold, “but unlocking it means stability first, then billions and years in development. U.S. actions aren’t empire-building — they’re boundary-setting,” Amanda van Dyke, founder of the Critical Minerals Hub, wrote on X on Dec. 21.
One local investigative report documented Chinese buyers operating at Venezuelan mining sites, with one miner noting that “when I was there I worked with tin. The buyers are there too: the same irregular groups, the guerrillas, and the Chinese.”
“The Chinese are also buying stones. They’re together — the Chinese and the National Liberation Army (ELN). It’s no secret. They’re in it together. I assume they’re the same people because they eat together, buy material together, and even get off the helicopter together,” a lifelong miner confirmed to the same local outlet.
The Chinese embassy told the DCNF to “please refer to competent authorities for your specific question,” but did not contest the reports that Chinese buyers might be operating in Venezuela to acquire critical minerals.
Additionally, Greenland is known to be rich in critical minerals, and the Trump administration has expressed interest in developing the country’s resources.
The DOW did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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