Last year’s Al Smith dinner raised a record $7 million to fund Catholic schools for needy inner-city New York children, plus pediatric healthcare, among many worthy charities that benefit from the annual event now heading into its 79th year.
Luminaries of New York society attend annually — as well as priests and bishops from around the world. Prominent New York Democrats like Sen. Chuck Schumer also attend.
In fact, the dinner’s political importance has meant that, since 1984, every Democratic and Republican presidential nominee has attended for a night of serious fundraising combined with a roast-style set of speechmaking barbs, just weeks before the quadrennial presidential vote.
Until now.
Vice President Kamala Harris has snubbed the invitation to the event, a refusal called “disappointing” by Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York. Wall Street Journal writer Peggy Noonan — a fierce critic of former President Donald Trump — wrote that whatever Harris thinks of the institutional Catholic Church, “the Al Smith dinner exists to raise money to feed the hungry, teach the child, heal the sick, house the immigrant.” Noonan continued, pointing out that American Catholics are “70 million strong and the famous deciders of national politics, backing Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2016.”
This point about Catholics picking presidents has merit, as U.S. Catholic adherents have been the very definition of true swing voters for many decades. For a half century the Catholic vote went to the presidential winner in every contest but one. The exception was the super-close 2000 race between Al Gore and eventual winner George W. Bush.
In 2020, the Catholic vote split almost exactly evenly between then- President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. But crucially, Catholics in 2020 shifted materially against Trump compared to his 2016 performance. According to the Pew Research validated voter survey of election returns, in 2016, Trump earned a Catholic windfall, winning the group by eight percentage points, 52-44%. That big margin proved critical, especially in heavily Catholic battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Now, there are material signs that the Catholic vote – the decisive swing vote – shifts back to the 45th president over Harris. For example, in battleground Wisconsin, the latest published poll from American Greatness shows Trump with a commanding 15% lead among Catholics over Harris, 53-38%. That same poll shows the overall race tied in Wisconsin at 47-47% each. So, the substantial Catholic population of the Badger State could well tip the balance in a very tight contest toward Trump.
In battleground Georgia, a state with a growing Catholic population, Trump’s lead among Catholics swells to 23%. Like Wisconsin, the TIPP Insights poll shows the overall race tied in the Peach State — so a strong Catholic turnout could prove determinative.
The Harris snub of the Al Smith event could provide exactly the motivation for Catholics to recognize her unfortunate and long-standing disrespect for Catholics. After all, as a senator, she actually questioned if a federal judicial nominee could serve on the federal bench simply because he is a faithful Catholic who belongs to the Knights of Columbus, a Catholic fraternal service society.
Thankfully, Trump will be attending and honoring Catholics while having some laughs and raising serious funds for badly needed projects across America. Given the ravages of the inflation created by the Harris-Biden administration, the demand for such services surges, from Catholic school tuition assistance to food-bank donations of staples for struggling American families.
Voters report that they were “better off” under Trump by about a 2/1 margin, 60%-33% in the latest TIPP Insight poll of battleground Nevada. For decisive Catholic voters, the anti-Kamala Harris case combines that economic angst with her significant disrespect shown to our community of tens of millions of faith-filled, patriotic Americans.
Brian Burch is the President of CatholicVote, the nation’s largest lay Catholic advocacy organization.
Steve Cortes is former senior advisor to President Donald Trump, former commentator for Fox News and CNN, and president of the League of American Workers.
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