CNN host Dana Bash and political commentator Kristen Soltis Anderson cast doubt Sunday on a new Iowa poll that showed Vice President Kamala Harris holding a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in the red state.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom released a poll on Saturday evening showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 47% to 44%, with pollster Ann Selzer expressing surprise over the results and noting that Harris has “clearly leaped into a leading position,” according to the Des Moines Register. However, on “State of the Union,” Bash highlighted the new data, mentioning that Republicans in the state have expressed skepticism about the numbers.
“Now, Republicans I’ve talked to in Iowa think that that is probably overstating her support. But they do see a trend there with late breakers for Kamala Harris on the female side, on the older side that could be very real [and] not just there but other places,” Bash said.
The CNN host asked Anderson about her own polling, to which the political commentator stated that while she applauds Selzer for being a “great pollster,” sometimes there can be “outliers” within the data.
“So I’ve also, in my own data, seen senior women trending a little more Democratic. I don’t think it is to the extent that was found in the Selzer poll. But she’s a great pollster, even good pollsters sometimes have outliers and that is why I think what David Axelrod said was so important about uncertainty,” Anderson said.
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“This election could be a reboot, that’s sort of what The New York Times/Siena polls are showing. That Harris has rebooted the Obama coalition, she’s getting younger voters, she’s getting voters of color to turnout for her in big numbers,” Anderson added. “But this also could be a realignment, and that’s what the Trump team is hoping for.”
Anderson went on to state that despite Trump’s potential losses among senior women voters, he could be making it up within other key voting blocs.
“That they’re actually doing better with younger voters, better with voters of color than expected. So even if they are losing seniors by a little bit, especially senior women, they’re making up that ground in other places,” Anderson continued.
“We don’t yet know if this is a reboot or a realignment, and just because the polls are generally showing this race close I want to be clear the uncertainty is not just, ‘We don’t know who’s going to win.’ It’s also possible that one of these candidates could run away with this. The uncertainty is not just, ‘Well we’re sure it’ll be close.’ We’re not sure of anything right now,” Anderson concluded.
National polls between Harris and Trump have been neck-in-neck the past month despite Trump gaining on several of the key swing states in mid-October. Average polling data from RealClearPolitics, shows Trump with a 0.1-point lead over Harris nationally, holding 48.4% of the vote and Harris at 48.3%.
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