CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten found Wednesday that all of President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees have an extremely high chance of getting confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
The Senate has not rejected a single nominee since 1925 when the president’s party controlled the chamber, while the chamber has not refused to confirm a nominee while controlled by the opposition party since 1989, Enten said. A total of 29 cabinet nominations have either withdrawn or been rejected since the founding of the U.S., making the chances of Trump’s picks having a very high chance of experiencing a successful confirmation process.
“[T]he bottomline here, very clear, very few cabinet nominations are either withdrawn or rejected, most get on through … The odds on [a cabinet member getting rejected] are low, really, really low,” Enten said. “Last cabinet nomination rejected when controlled by the opposition party, you gotta go back to ’89, of course that was [former Texas Sen.] John Tower. How about the president’s party, you gotta go back a century, all the way back to 1925.”
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The chances of Trump’s picks for attorney general, secretary of state and director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) getting confirmed per an average of the betting markets stands higher than 95%, Enten said. Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio has a 99% chance of getting confirmed, while CIA director nominee John Ratcliffe and attorney general nominee Pam Bondi have a 96% and 98% likelihood.
“Mamma mia, look how high these are! Pam Bondi, 98%, John Ratcliffe, 96%, Marco Rubio, 99%,” Enten continued. “Look, the bottomline is this. Yes, there’s a few percentage points left on the board, we don’t know what’s gonna happen, but the chance that all three of these get confirmed [is] high, high, sky high.”
It is currently unclear whether Office of the Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth will successfully get confirmed, Enten added. Republican Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who initially expressed skepticism of confirming Hegseth, endorsed him following his Tuesday confirmation hearing.
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