CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said on Thursday that the recent Texas redistricting effort could lead to Republicans retaining control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
President Donald Trump told reporters on July 15 that he desired a new Texas congressional map that would allow the GOP to flip five additional House seats in the state. State Republicans proposed a new map on Wednesday that would flip five seats in the 2026 midterm. Enten said on “CNN News Central” that five seats could be enough to preserve the GOP’s majority, given the narrow margins in recent cycles. (RELATED: Why On-And-Off Voters Who Backed Trump May Be GOP’s Midterm Silver Bullet)
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“It could make a huge difference. This, in fact, could maintain control for the Republicans in the House of Representatives … Texas has 38 congressional districts,” Enten said. “Look at those that Trump won last year by at least 10 percentage points. Under the current lines, it’s 25. Under the proposed lines, it’s 30. That’s … five potential pickup opportunities for the Republican Party.”
“You might think five seats is just five seats, but keep in mind this — margin to spare for the House majority: in 2020, the Democrats had four seats; 2022, Republicans had four seats; this time around, two seats for Republicans out of the 2024 elections,” he added. “Five seats can make all the difference in the world. And that is why Republicans in Texas providing five pickup opportunities could, in fact, make the difference between Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives and maintaining control of the House of Representatives.”
Republicans presently have an eight-seat majority in the House, including vacancies following the recent deaths of three House Democrats.
Mid-decade redistricting — the redrawing of Congressional lines outside of regular post-Census redistricting — is uncommon and frequently contentious. A high-profile mid-decade redistricting effort in Texas was successful in 2003, despite an effort by more than 50 Democrats in the state legislature to block a vote on the new map.
The new map was much more favorable to Republicans and led to the GOP picking up five House seats in Texas alone during the 2004 election cycle.
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