CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Monday that President-elect Donald Trump’s electoral “mandate” is “shallow,” citing his narrow popular vote margin and limited “coattails” in Congress.
Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris with 312 electoral votes, securing over 76.5 million votes and just under 50% of the total, compared to Harris’ 226 electoral votes and roughly 48.25% as of Monday morning, according to the Cook Political Report. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” asserted that most past presidents who won the popular vote secured larger margins and helped their parties gain more ground in Congress.
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“The case that Trump’s mandate isn’t all that. Look, if you look historically speaking, Donald Trump is now under 50% in the national popular vote, barely under 50%, but he is under 50%. And I want to take a look and compare his popular vote victory to those historically speaking over the last 200 years,” Enten told host John Berman. “His popular vote victory ranks 44th out of 51. That ain’t exactly strong. Some might argue that is weak, weak, weak in the words of Tony Blair.”
“In fact, his popular vote win at this point is the weakest going all the way back … to 2000 to find a weaker one, a smaller popular vote victory than Donald Trump currently has,” he continued. “So yeah, Trump has won the popular vote, but it ain’t all that, my dear friend, John Berman.”
Berman and Enten noted that former Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and President Joe Biden won larger shares of the popular vote than Trump.
While Republicans have secured a Senate majority, Enten asserted Trump had “short coattails” as there were states where Trump was victorious that Republican Senate candidates lost or are currently trailing.
“States Trump won but Democrats won or lead in the Senate race, look at this. In 2016, it was zero. In 2020, it was zero. In 2024, look at this. Four states, four states where a Senate Democratic candidate won even though Donald Trump won,” the data reporter said. “We’re talking about Nevada, Arizona … Michigan and Wisconsin. That is four states and Pennsylvania. We still haven’t called yet. That could be five if Bob Casey is able to mount a comeback. But even if Casey loses and Dave McCormick wins, we’re talking about four states.”
“In fact, I went all the way back through the history books, and this is the most Senate races that the [presidential] winner’s party lost in states the president won since 2004. Again, you have to go all the way back since the early 2000’s to find a historical note that matches what’s going on right now,” he added. “So yeah, Donald Trump won. But there weren’t exactly all that many Republicans, or at least fewer than you’d expect historically, who rode around in that victory car with him.”
Republicans are also projected to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives, but Enten said it could be “historically small.”
“The GOP would have a record small majority if the current House results hold. The GOP would be at 221, the Democrats would be at 214. You have to go all the way back before there were 50 states in the union to find a smaller majority for the incoming House majority that Republicans currently hold right now at 221,” he said. “And of course, that could drop lower if Stefanik, Waltz or others leave the House Republican majority, which at this point seems quite likely, Mr. Brennan.”
“We’re talking a very wide win for Donald Trump but the depth, it’s not particularly deep. It’s actually quite shallow historically speaking, Mr. Berman,” Enten concluded.
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