The Cook Political Report on Tuesday updated its projections for key swing states in the 2024 presidential race following June’s debate, and the changes signal that President Joe Biden may be in trouble.
One of America’s leading nonpartisan election and campaign watchers, Cook Political Report’s updates show that key jurisdictions — including crucial swing states like Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — are currently breaking for former President Donald Trump with about four months to go until Election Day. Cook’s updates reflect that some voters are leaving Biden behind in the wake of the president’s lackluster and disjointed performance at the June 27 debate against Trump, which has spurred significant questions about Biden’s mental acuity and ability to serve as president.
Tuesday’s updates included shifting Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “toss up” states to “lean Republican.” Elsewhere in the country, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nebraska’s second district have all moved from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
Today, we’re making six changes to our Electoral College Ratings.
AZ: Toss Up to Lean R
GA: Toss Up to Lean R
MN: Likely D to Lean D#NE02: Likely D to Lean D
NH: Likely D to Lean D
NV: Toss Up to Lean R@amyewalter on the state of the race post-debate: https://t.co/AAoW23wKWC— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) July 9, 2024
Trump has generally had better numbers in the polls in the wake of the debate, and his campaign reportedly believes that states formerly thought to be out of reach may now be in play as Biden’s numbers languish. Biden, meanwhile, has faced calls or suggestions from elected officials and liberal media pundits to quit the race lest he stumble through November and lose the presidency to Trump.
However, Biden has so far shown no intention to drop out of the race. His campaign has aggressively rebuffed calls for him to do so, and he called into MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Monday to make clear that he plans on staying in the race and challenged his opponents to take him on at the convention if they don’t want him to be the Democratic nominee.
Among registered voters, Trump has widened his lead to eight points with 49% preferring Trump and 41% preferring Biden, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released on Wednesday. Across likely voters, Trump leads by six points, with Trump garnering 49% and Biden 43% support, according to the same poll.
Another survey shows Trump with a six point lead over Biden nationally, polling at 48% compared to 42% for Biden, according to a Wednesday Wall Street Journal poll.
The Biden campaign did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
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