Airline companies warned that rates will rise due to jet fuel shortages despite the Trump administration remaining adamant that rising costs are temporary.
Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, alongside a sharp jump in crude oil prices, according to the International Air Transport Association. President Donald Trump assured on March 16 that the dramatic price increases would be temporary, though aviation industry leaders are preparing for oil prices to stay high until late 2027.
United CEO Scott Kirby estimated on March 20 that oil costs will rise to $175 per barrel and will not return to $100 by late 2027, according to a United Airlines press release. The airline CEO added in a March 24 interview with Bloomberg Television that airfare could rise up to 20% in order for United to break even from oil-related expenses.
“If oil prices stayed where they are today, that’s [$]11 billion of expenses for us,” said Kirby in the interview. “And that would require prices to be up 20% to break even to cover that cost.”
Kirby said United Airlines will cancel flights during off-peak periods, such as weekday and red-eye flights and will cancel flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai, according to a United Airlines press release.
Most U.S. airline companies no longer hedge fuel costs into their expenditures, so rises in fuel prices are often passed to consumers to cover fuel expenses, according to NBC News.
Kirby’s statements show him deviating from his previous alignment with the Trump administration, including meeting with Vice President JD Vance in October to advocate for reopening the government without condition and giving vocal support to Trump’s tariff plan, according to reporting by Aviation A2Z. The airline industry felt the brunt of the shutdown as the Department of Transportation had to shut down 10% of air traffic temporarily at 40 major airports in November.
Kirby mandated all United employees take the COVID-19 or face termination in 2021, becoming one the first airline companies to institute a vaccine mandate. Kirby supported the United Aviate Academy’s diversity commitment in 2021 to have at least 50% of enrolled students be either women or people of color by 2030, according to a United Airlines press release.
JetBlue told AP News the company raised checked baggage fees up to $9 with domestic baggage prices increasing from $35 to $39 to offset rising oil prices. JetBlue said increasing prices on optional services “used by select customers” would help keep their overall rates competitive.
Delta Airlines, American Airlines, and United Airlines flights from New York to London started near $285 before Operation Epic Fury’s start in February. Delta increased fares to $553 on March 27, United fares up to $846 on March 27, and American fares up to $715 on March 17, according to reporting by Business Insider.
International airlines increased prices amidst rising fuel costs as well. Air France announced raising long haul ticket prices by $57 and Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific said they would raise their fuel surcharge by 34% on travel routes from April 1 with bi-monthly reviews dependent on the oil market, according to a report from Reuters.
American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said his company saw a $400 million impact for their 2026 first quarter expenses, according to a report by TheStreet. Isom said American Airlines’ large domestic network could prove to be a great strength for the company as they would use less fuel for shorter routes.
Trump made American energy dominance and independence a priority for his second administration. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced Wednesday that 2025 US energy production reached record levels with over 714 million oil barrels being produced through offshore oil and restated the administration’s commitment to unlocking the full potential of our domestic energy resources,” according to a Department of Interior press release.
The current timeline to when the war will end is still unknown. Trump gave a 15-point proposal to the Iranian government to end the war which Iran rejected. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said talks between the two sides still remain active.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told reporters on Tuesday that Trump will decide when the military objectives are complete and favorable enough to American interests to end the war in Iran. “It will be the president’s determination and the president’s determination alone when those objectives are complete and when it serves the interest of the American people to cut that deal,” said Hegseth.
“I can tell you that, when this is over, oil prices are going to go down very, very rapidly,” said Trump to reporters on March 16. Trump told reporters on Tuesday the Iran war would end soon and that “we’re going to be out pretty quickly,” according to a Reuters report.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a March 15 interview that the U.S. is taking a multitude of actions to help mitigate the rising oil costs, including an increase in oil production in California. The Department of Energy ordered the Texas-based oil company Sable Offshore Corps. to reopen its pipeline system in California.
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