Republicans are warning of tighter-than-expected margins in Florida’s 6th congressional district special election to fill the seat left by President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
Republican Florida State Sen. Randy Fine, who Trump endorsed in November, is running against Democratic candidate Josh Weil, who is a middle school math teacher in Orlando. Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida-based GOP strategist Ford O’Connell have been outspoken regarding the changing landscape of the race, but both remain confident that Fine will secure a victory for the GOP despite the drastic differences in campaign funds.
“Randy Fine is going to win this race, but it’s going to be much closer than many people expected,” O’Connell told The Hill. “The Republicans are also, what, one cold away from being in the minority. It’s really important for both parties to win.”
Weil’s campaign recruited national Democratic strategists and raised over $10 million in funds, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, while Fine’s campaign raised under a million. Democrats still face a mountain of red in the district that overwhelmingly voted for Trump and then-Republican Rep. Waltz in November, both defeating their competitors by over 30 points.
“The biggest thing right now for Republicans is to make sure you raise awareness about it just because Florida statewide, we have basically a 1.2 million voter advantage,” O’Connell said. “The Dems are focused on this because they want to change the narrative. The Republicans are not as focused on it because most voters don’t know the difference between two and three and four seats in the House,” he added.
Since voters are thrown off their typical voting schedules for special elections, raising awareness can prove difficult. The Republican Party of Florida pitched in and helped pay for Fine’s TV ads, and Florida Young Republicans were knocking on doors throughout the weekend, Vic Baker, the committeeman for Volusia County’s GOP, said according to Politico.
“We have got a little job on our hands with this congressional race,” Baker said.
Honored to have Sheriff @Rob_HardwickFL of St. Johns County @TeamSJSO endorse me for Congress! Sheriff Hardwick joins the other five CD-6 Sheriffs! I Back the Blue (or in this case, the Green!) and they have my back. Vote early TODAY! pic.twitter.com/EpIChtkx5V
— Senator Randy Fine (@VoteRandyFine) March 26, 2025
At a Tuesday press conference DeSantis said he expected to see an “underperformance” from Fine’s results compared to his 2022 winning margins as well as Trump’s.
“They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of a specific candidate running in that race. If President Trump were on the ballot in this special election, he would win by 30 points no question,” DeSantis said. “I think the district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it’s almost impossible for someone with an R by their name to lose that district. So I would anticipate a Republican candidate is still going to be successful. Do I think they will get even close to the margins that I received or president received? No.”
“Our campaign has the momentum, and that’s reflected in what we’ve seen in the early vote, because we remain focused on what truly matters to the voters,” Weil said in a statement shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation. “I am dedicated to protecting Social Security, Medicare and lowering costs, ensuring that our seniors and families have the support they need thrive. I’m grateful for the hundreds of thousands of Floridians and regular Americans who still believe in a better future. It’s that grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine and the huge corporations and special interests that own him and his campaign.”
Early voting on Saturday showed close margins, but Republicans took the lead on Tuesday through early in-person voting. Following Saturday’s early numbers, Trump gave Fine another boost on social media, amplifying his approval for the candidate ahead of Election Day on April 1.
“Randy has been working very hard on the campaign trail. Last week I joined him for a tele-town hall with thousands of voters in CD 6 where he shared his plans to work with President Trump to secure the border, support our military and fight for our great ally, Israel,” Republican Florida Sen. Rick Scott said in a statement shared with the DCNF. “Randy will win and every Republican needs to rally behind him because we can’t have another radical socialist Democrat in Congress who will try to derail the President’s agenda.”
The Republican lead in the House of Representatives is incredibly slim, currently sitting at 218 to 213 following former Republican Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz’s November resignation and Trump tapping Waltz to serve as his national security advisor. Additionally, two Democratic seats were left unexpectedly open after two Democratic congressmen, Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner and Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva, died in March.
Fine’s campaign did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with a comment provided by Josh Weil’s campaign.
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