The recent killings of Iranian nuclear scientists in U.S. and Israeli strikes have raised new concerns about what happens next, especially if instability inside Iran worsens. While the immediate impact has been to disrupt parts of the countryās nuclear program, some experts warn that the longer-term risks could shift in more complicated ways.
One concern is what happens to Iranās nuclear materials and expertise if the government loses control or faces serious internal strain. According to Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association, the risk of nuclear material falling into the wrong hands remains low for now. Non-state actors would still face major technical and logistical barriers, particularly when it comes to enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels or turning it into something usable for a nuclear weapon.
Still, that assessment comes with an important caveat. If political instability deepens or the current government weakens significantly, the situation could change. In that kind of environment, oversight of nuclear stockpiles might slip, creating openings for materials to be stolen, diverted, or moved to undeclared locations. Thereās also the human side of the equation.
Scientists with specialized knowledgeāespecially those who survive or leave government serviceācould become targets for recruitment by other states or groups looking to advance their own nuclear ambitions.
The strikes themselves have removed several high-level figures tied to Iranās nuclear and defense infrastructure. Among them was Hossein Jabal Amelian, who led the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, widely seen as a continuation of Iranās earlier weapons-related work. Others killed in 2025 had also been linked to research on weaponization.
Even so, analysts say the loss of personnel doesnāt automatically end a program. Iran has a deep bench of scientists and engineers, and replacements are likely. Whatās harder to recover is the experience those individuals carriedāyears of technical work, institutional knowledge, and familiarity with highly specialized processes. That kind of expertise isnāt easily rebuilt.
Thereās also a psychological factor. Future scientists may think twice about participating in sensitive programs if they believe they could be targeted. That hesitation alone could slow progress, even if the infrastructure remains intact.
At the same time, the strikes have hit multiple facilities tied to nuclear research and development, including sites connected to explosives testing, metallurgy, and advanced physics. These losses could create short-term setbacks, forcing Iran to regroup or rebuild parts of its program.
Despite the damage, Iran still retains a significant amount of enriched uranium. Estimates suggest more than 200 kilograms enriched to 60 percent remain at one facility, which could potentially be further processed if conditions allowed. Thereās also uncertainty about whether undisclosed sites exist, which would complicate any effort to fully assess the situation.
The immediate effects of the strikes are visibleādamaged facilities and lost personnel. However, it may take years to understand whether these actions meaningfully slowed Iranās nuclear ambitions or simply reshaped how and where that work continues.