Team Trump seeks to end Russia’s war on Ukraine and the commentariat remains in fantasyland, preferring the negotiators make an omelet without breaking eggs.
The particulars are that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth spoke to NATO members in Brussels, Belgium, revealing some highly inconvenient truths. Trump spoke with Russian President Putin a few hours later and then with reporters. Then Trump talked with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss the path forward.
Hegseth’s illuminations about Ukraine infuriated even some rookie Republicans, particularly three points, none of which are actually new.
First, Ukraine has no hope regaining much territory lost to Russia since 2014. Sad, but true, and the Ukrainians have already said as much.
Second, he observed Ukraine would not be joining NATO under present circumstances. Simple fact: Putin will not deal if Ukraine is allowed NATO membership; want peace? no NATO for Ukraine.
Third, Hegseth insisted that, however matters turned out, there would be no “U.S. boots on the ground” in Ukraine. This is so obvious even former President Joe Biden understood it.
Three long-standing facts, yet the clown corps was still apoplectic Hegseth dared utter them. Hegseth, they said, had given away vital leverage in making these statements. Putin was dancing in the Kremlin.
Reality check: You give nothing away when these facts are known to all from the start. Putin wouldn’t concede a single ruble.
Critics claimed the United States would be rewarding Russia for its act of aggression against Ukraine when severe penalties are required. This view suffers from yet another delusion.
A cease-fire and durable peace between Ukraine and Russia require Putin’s consent. For Putin to pay a price for his aggression, Russia would have to be losing badly.
In fact, Russia is slowly taking more vital territory from Ukraine, while Ukraine maintains a foothold on Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast. Russia isn’t winning, but it certainly isn’t losing. Nobody can force Putin to make major concessions beyond stopping the war, let alone force Moscow to pay a penalty.
Russia is the aggressor. In a perfect world, Russia would be forced to pay. It is not going to happen. Even if Putin were assassinated tomorrow, a ceasefire quickly following, it is fantasy to think Russia would pay. This is realpolitik 2025.
A third ridiculous criticism is that Trump is throwing Ukraine under the bus by talking to Putin. Suppose Trump and Putin cut a deal Ukraine opposed. The United States can’t force Ukraine to accept a bad deal. Ukraine would continue to fight with full European backing.
In fact, the U.S. State Department sent the Europeans a questionnaire asking what they will provide to protect Ukraine after a peace deal. Understandably, Ukraine will insist on solid security guarantees from Europe before it stops fighting. Croissants and cannoli are not on the menu.
Mark Rutte, NATO’s tough new secretary-general, observed that Europeans complain they don’t have a seat at the negotiating table. Why should they? Lacking sufficient manpower, weapons, systems, or logistical support, Europe has little more than cash to offer and has mostly been miserly even there, boldly offering a handful of drones here and a couple billion Euros there. Remember, the EU’s economy is almost 10 times Russia’s.
Zelenskyy wants peace and understands NATO membership and recovering territory are impossible for now, but he will demand solid security guarantees from a wobbly Europe.
Putin wants peace to rebuild his broken economy and military. He’s not done with his imperial plans, but he needs years to regroup.
Strong leadership from Trump and a little spine from Europe can quickly produce a durable peace. The commentariat needs to get over its Trump Derangement Syndrome to help.
JD Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
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