Majority Of California Voters Say State Heading In Wrong Direction Ahead Of Governor Race

Most Californians think their state is currently on the wrong track, according to an Emerson College poll released Tuesday.

The poll shows that 52% of likely California voters think the state is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 48% who think it is presently on the right track. Meanwhile, voters in deep-blue Los Angeles were divided right down the middle with 50% saying the Golden State is moving in the right direction while the other 50% think it is going in the wrong direction, according to the survey. 

The survey’s release comes ahead of California’s June 2 gubernatorial primary in which the top two finishers will advance to the November general election regardless of party. Current Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom is barred from seeking reelection due to term limits.

Los Angeles will similarly hold a mayoral election on June 2 which will go to a November runoff if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democratic Mayor Karen Bass is facing challenges from socialist Democratic City Councilmember Nithya Raman and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, a Republican.

A majority of California voters, 53%, think the state’s homelessness crisis is worsening, 33% think it is staying the same and 15% think it is improving, according to the poll.

The Emerson College survey also found that 37% of California voters said the most important issue was the economy, followed by 22% who said the same about housing affordability. By comparison, 11% of respondents ranked “threats to democracy” as the biggest issue, while 8% said immigration and 7% said healthcare, the survey found.

A spokesperson for Newsom’s office declined to comment.

Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is currently leading the open primary for California governor with 17%, followed by former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 13%, billionaire Tom Steyer at 11%, Chad Bianco at 11% and former Rep. Katie Porter at 8%, the poll found. However, a quarter of the survey’s respondents said they were still undecided.

“Rep. Swalwell’s support increased among Democratic voters in the past month from 23% to 27%, along with Tom Steyer, whose support among this group also increased from 12% to 16%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “A plurality of the independent electorate is undecided (39%), while 12% support Swalwell and Hilton respectively, and Republicans are split between Hilton (38%) and Bianco (34%).”

Due to California’s top two primary, it is possible that both Hilton and Bianco can advance to the general election guaranteeing that Newsom’s successor will be a Republican.

The term-limited governor is reportedly likely gearing up for a presidential run in 2028. Newsom said during an October 2025 interview on “CBS News Sunday Morning” that he would be “lying” if he dismissed plans of weighing a 2028 White House bid, NBC News reported.

California notably recorded a net loss of approximately 216,000 residents in 2025, following a net loss of about 239,000 residents from 2023 to 2024, and even bigger outbound moves during the COVID pandemic years, The Malibu Times reported on Jan. 18, citing data from U-Haul and population figures from the California Department of Finance.

Emerson College’s survey was conducted March 7-9. The sample of likely California voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to the poll’s margin of error (MOE), of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The sample of likely voters in Los Angeles consists of a sample size of n=350 with a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.2%. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.