By many accounts, President Joe Biden has had a pretty good summer politically.
He racked up some legislative wins with the passage of the CHIPS Act and the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act. Gas prices have fallen for three consecutive months. Inflation, at least for now, appears to have hit its peak.
The news cycle has been dominated by concerns about former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified information and the rise of so-called “MAGA Republicans.” Meanwhile, gone from the headlines are Democrats voicing concerns about Biden’s age, competence, and ability to run again in 2024.
And as a result, FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows the president’s approval rating rising from the abysmal 37.5% it hit at its nadir, to 42.7% as of Tuesday morning.
With the wind at his back, it seems, Biden has some good political momentum and energy now to make the case that he should run again.
But a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll that was shared exclusively with The Hill has a finding that might surprise the president. Despite his good summer, a majority of Americans still do not want him to run again.
According to The Hill, 67% of respondents said they do not want Biden to run again. Half of the respondents stated they would oppose a second term because they believe he is a bad president. And roughly 30% said it is because they think he is too old.
The poll was conducted Sept. 7-8 and surveyed 1,885 registered voters. The Hill notes, “The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.”
While a majority of voters said they do not want Biden to run again, his predecessor won’t necessarily have anything to gloat about from this poll.
It also found that a majority of voters do not want former President Donald Trump to run again either.
Thirty-six percent listed their reason for opposing another Trump term as because he is “erratic,” another 33% said they think he would divide the country, and 31% pointed to the Jan 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Additionally, 60% of respondents said they would be open to voting for a moderate, independent candidate if 2024 is a rematch between Trump and Biden.
However, if they had to choose between the two men, 45% of respondents said they would vote for Trump while 42% said they would vote for Biden.
It is entirely possible that this poll turns out to be an outlier. But it’s also possible that despite what seemed to be a favorable couple of months for Democrats, negative views about Biden are just baked into the cake at this point.
The poll’s results are similar to other surveys that were conducted earlier in the summer before Democrats started to feel more optimistic about November.
It can’t be too good for the incumbent president when after weeks of what should be optimal news coverage and racking up wins, the general mood about a potential second term still seems to be, “No thanks.”
