Former President Donald Trump has the advantage in the 2024 election, according to poll expert Nate Silver.
On Wednesday, Silver — who founded the data analytics site FiveThirtyEight — posted on X that the election forecasting model he created is up and running.
“The model is ready,” he wrote, adding, “And here’s our headline: the presidential election isn’t a toss-up.”
The model is ready.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 26, 2024
And here's our headline: the presidential election isn't a toss-up.https://t.co/u8HuCo4lPU
In a post on his Substack, the “Silver Bulletin,” Silver elaborated in the detail the challenges that go into building such a model. He explained the factors in the election and the data the model is analyzing to make its forecasts.
The model predicts Trump has 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Biden has a 33.7%.
Meanwhile, it gives Biden a 51% cane of winning the popular vote and Trump a 49% chance.
In terms of how many electoral votes the two will win, the model gives Biden 250 votes, while Trump receives 287.
The model, while it factors in other data than simple polling numbers, is not too radically different from other models. FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Biden a slight edge over Trump.
Meanwhile, its polling tracker finds the race is a dead heat.
Additionally, RealClearPolitics’ average of polls finds Trump has a 1.3 point lead over Biden.
