Now that the 2024 presidential election is in the past, many are wondering who is prime to lead the Democratic Party into the future.
According to Nate Silver, statistician and “FiveThirtyEight” founder, the answer is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) as the presidential nominee for the Democratic Party in 2028.
Silver and former “FiveThirtyEight” podcast host Galen Druke did a video for his “Silver Bulletin” newsletter Wednesday when the both chose Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic up-and-comer.
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke said. “In a Yale poll just out this week, AOC has the highest net favorability rating of any of the Democrats that they asked about.”
He added Ocasio-Cortez’s appeal will entice people to back her.
“So that means that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party and there’s a lot of people who could potentially get on board with her. But I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support. I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028 and it’s going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin, and I think that’s Ocasio-Cortez,” Druke added. “Like, the media is kind of obsessed with her, and they’re going to follow her every move, which means she will be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process.”
Silver concurred with Druke’s assessment.
“I agree with everything. She was going to be my first pick, and I can’t conceal that now, right? Because of some of the polling; because she has this kind of progressive lane, probably not to herself; because she is younger and media savvy,” Silver said. “I mean, look, in polls, if she were to try to primary [Sen.]Chuck Schumer [(D-N.Y.)], she is now ahead in those polls and New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate bloc.”
Silver then questioned whether Ocasio-Cortez would run.
“I think she’s gonna run,” Druke said. “If you’ve been following her moves in terms of her ‘Fight Oligarchy’ tour, in terms of the kind of content she’s putting out on social media.”
“Also, she has learned a lot as a politician since those early days of opposing Amazon, and especially those early days of the “Abolish IC” stuff that was very unpopular ultimately,” Druke continued. “You listen to her message today, it’s all about the economy, and she’s really hitting Trump on I think his most obvious weakness most quickly, which is the number of billionaires in his cabinet, he seems to be serving– like playing to the tech elite, and serving people who are ultimately not the median voter in America.”
Druke also pointed out that being a woman of color.
“And I think one advantage which she has in a Democratic primary is that, as a woman of color, she’s not forced to talk about identity all the time because she’s sort of self-evidently different from any of the like white guys running, and she doesn’t have to prove her bonafides there,” Druke said. “At the same time, I think progressives have learned like stick to the economic message because what you have to say about those social and cultural state of affairs in America broadly isn’t popular, and I think she knows that.”
The pair’s second choice is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. The two diverge when it comes their third choice with Druke picking former Vice president Kamala Harris. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) is Silver’s third choice for the most-likely Democratic nominee for president in 2028.
