The first GRAM study, published in 2022, found that global AMR-related deaths in 2019 were higher than those from HIV/AIDS or malaria, leading directly to 1.2 million deaths and playing a role in a further 4.95 million deaths.
Estimates for the new study were produced for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes – including meningitis, bloodstream infections, and other infections – among people of all ages in 204 countries.
The estimates were based on 520 million individual records from a wide range of sources, including hospital data, death records, and antibiotic use data.
Study co-author Dr. Kevin Ikuta said: “The fall in deaths from sepsis and AMR among young children over the past three decades is an incredible achievement.
“However, these findings show that while infections have become less common in young children, they have become harder to treat when they occur.
“Further, the threat to older people from AMR will only increase as populations age.
“Now is the time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by AMR.”
The research estimates that AMR deaths will increase steadily in the coming decades based on current trends, with 1.91 million annual deaths directly due to AMR projected by 2050 – a 67.5% increase on the 1.14 million deaths in 2021.
By the middle of the century, AMR is also projected to play a role in a broader 8.22 million deaths – an increase of 74.5% on the 4.71 million associated deaths in 2021.
The study suggests that there will be “considerable differences” globally, with a 72% increase in deaths among people 70 years and older in high-income countries compared to a 234% increase in North Africa and the Middle East.
The study indicates that future deaths from AMR will be highest in South Asia – including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh – where a total of 11.8 million deaths directly due to AMR are forecast between 2025 and 2050.
Study co-author Dr. Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said: “There has been real progress in tackling AMR, particularly among young children, but our findings indicate more must be done to protect people from this growing global health threat.
“By 2050, resistant infections could be involved in some eight million deaths each year, either as the direct cause of death or as a contributing factor.”
He added: “To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to decrease the risk of severe infections through vaccines, new drugs, improved healthcare, better access to existing antibiotics, and guidance on how to use them most effectively,”
Produced in association with SWNS Talker
