Former President Donald Trump has amassed more support among blue collar voters as Vice President Kamala Harris’ support with the once reliably Democratic group slips.
Trump has made strides among working class voters more than any other Republican candidate in decades, boasting a 31 point lead among trade school graduates and 17 point increase among nonwhite non-college educated voters compared to 2020, according to CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten. Among union voters, a historically blue voting demographic, Harris has managed to hold a nine point lead while her Democratic predecessors boasted a double digit advantage. (RELATED: Harris’ Lead Among Key Demographic Dwindles Compared To Past Dem Nominees)
“There has always been a great deal of synergy between Trump and this demographic constituency,” Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told the DCNF. “He has certainly made a conscious effort to target that voter base, and now, this traditionally Democratic constituency is at least keeping an open door to Donald Trump.”
RICHFIELD, OHIO – MARCH 29: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to a crowd gathered at the Local 18 Richfield Facility of the Operating Engineers Apprentice and Training, a union and apprentice training center specializing in the repair and operation of heavy equipment on March 29, 2018 in Richfield, Ohio. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
Prior to the CNN poll, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters declined to endorse a presidential candidate on Sept. 18. Internal polling from the Teamsters, the largest union in America, revealed that nearly 60% of the workers they represent strongly favor Trump over Harris. (RELATED: Battleground State With Few Electors May Punch Above Its Weight, Deliver ‘Big Blow’ To Harris Come November)
“All of the nation’s working men and women know that President Trump is the candidate looking out for them, which is why nearly 6 out of every 10 Teamsters support his candidacy,” Trump Campaign Senior Advisor Brian Hughes told the DCNF. “He has an economic plan that will allow workers to keep more of the money they earn, increase American manufacturing, and drive down energy costs. Under dealmaker President Trump, American farmers, manufacturers, and auto workers got the best trade deals in history, and he will once again put America First when we send him back to the White House.”
Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien was invited by to speak at the Republican National Convention (RNC) back in July. In contrast, O’Brien was not extended the same offer by the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.
“The Teamsters thank all candidates for meeting with members face-to-face during our unprecedented roundtables,” O’Brien said in a press release. “Unfortunately, neither major candidate was able to make serious commitments to our union to ensure the interests of working people are always put before Big Business. We sought commitments from both Trump and Harris not to interfere in critical union campaigns or core Teamsters industries — and to honor our members’ right to strike — but were unable to secure those pledges.”
The Teamsters have endorsed every Democratic nominee for president since Bill Clinton, including President Joe Biden in 2020.
“By not endorsing Kamala Harris, they’ve given the green light to go vote for Donald Trump,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF.
“We’re seeing a realignment between the institutional wing of the union and the rank and file membership,” Foxwell told the DCNF.
Pollsters like McLaughlin told the DCNF that this shift among working class voters is likely a result of economic hardships under the Biden-Harris administration.
“They’ve been exploited by the Democrat Party,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “For the people that are surviving paycheck to paycheck, they have no choice but to vote for Donald Trump.” (RELATED: Experts Say Major Swing State Is Once Again ‘Pivotal’ To Trump’s Chances Of Retaking White House)
Inflation has repeatedly polled as a top issue for voters, with rates surging to decade highs under the Biden-Harris administration.
While inflationary costs burden working class Americans, the Biden-Harris administration approved several spending provisions such as the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act, which have collectively contributed more than $2 trillion to the federal deficit. The American Rescue Plan, which was passed in March 2021, approved $1.9 trillion in spending, and the Inflation Reduction Act, which was passed in August 2022, authorized an additional $750 billion.
In addition to economic factors, political strategists like Foxwell told the DCNF that Trump’s trade policy would “naturally appeal” to working class voters in a way that the Democratic Party hasn’t.
“We’re seeing a realignment of the two parties when it comes to trade policy,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “Trump, who leads the party that was once considered to be the party of free trade and unfettered market capitalism, has adopted positions on issues like trade tariffs that would naturally appeal to a union constituency.” (RELATED: Trump Hammered Voters’ Key Concerns In RNC Speech, Harris Hardly Mentioned Them)
“Meanwhile, ever since the days of the Clinton administration and certainly continuing through the Biden presidency, the Democrats have been leaning more toward free trade,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “So, to the extent that we have a union workforce that is concerned with unfair and unbalanced competition from export markets, Trump’s policies would have a natural appeal.”
Although the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania typically lean blue, their working class strongholds will prove increasingly consequential heading into November.
These “blue wall” states carry a lot of electoral weight, making them crucial for either candidate if they want to see an electoral victory in November.
In 2016, Trump swept all three Rust Belt states and secured his election against former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. In 2020, however, Trump lost in all three states and subsequently lost his reelection against President Joe Biden.
As Foxwell said, Trump has made a “conscious effort” to appeal to key industry workers like the United Auto Workers (UAW) members who were on strike in Detroit, Michigan, in 2023. During his campaign, he attacked Biden’s Green New Deal policies and their potentially negative impact on the auto industry in order to gain their favor.
Trump has also gained ground among trade school graduates, which is a continuously growing demographic. Gen Z has become increasingly involved in trade schools, with enrollments in vocational programs increasing by 16% from 2022 to 2023 according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
“I think there’s a lot of fluidity in this campaign, despite the fact that the numbers look relatively static at the top,” Foxwell told the DCNF.
“It’s really essential,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “For Donald Trump’s Republican Party to become a majority, we’re relying on working voters across the country in Michigan and Wisconsin to add to our coalition. And he will win them over not because they make up a majority of the Republican Party, but because Donald Trump has stood up for them.”
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the DCNF.
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