China is facing mounting economic pressure as President Donald Trump threatens 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, security experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The president announced Monday that the tariffs would take effect “immediately,” drawing on his favored diplomatic tool as he seeks to pressure Tehran into ending its bloody crackdown on nationwide demonstrations against the regime. In recent weeks, Trump has openly supported and encouraged Iranian protesters, saying on Tuesday that “help is on its way” to the “Iranian patriots.”
While the measure is likely to further isolate Iran — already reeling from years of U.S. sanctions and inflation above 40% — it could also reverberate in China, Iran’s largest trade partner.
“China has looked to Iran for a number of years as a source for heavily discounted oil and has done business with Iran, flaunting U.S. sanctions in the process,” Michael Sobolik, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told the DCNF.
“If China’s ability to get discounted Iranian oil is compromised or complicated, that will be tricky for China,” Sobolik said, calling it a “pressure point that the administration should consider exploiting.”
Jack Burnham, a China researcher with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), echoed the critical role Chinese oil purchases play in sustaining Tehran.
“China is a key financial lifeline for the regime, primarily through oil purchases,” Burnham told the DCNF. “It’s also the case that China has previously supplied Iran with key precursors for its ballistic missile program. So while not offering any — as of yet — direct military and very mild rhetorical support to Tehran during the current protests, China has a long track record of supporting the regime.”
Despite years of sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran remains embedded in global trade, with more than 140 countries still maintaining some level of trade with the country.
Iran conducted nearly $125 billion in international trade in 2024, including $32 billion with China, $28 billion with the United Arab Emirates, and $17 billion with Turkey, according to World Trade Organization data cited by the Associated Press.
China sources a large share of its oil from U.S. adversaries, including roughly 11% from Russia and nearly 7% from Venezuela, according to FDD’s analysis of shipping data. Yet, Iran accounts for the largest share, comprising 23.3% of China’s total imports, making it indispensable to Beijing’s energy portfolio.
“The Venezuela operation is an embarrassment for Xi Jinping, but it’s not a huge problem for him when it comes to energy,” Sobolik said. “But Iran makes up a significantly larger portion, so energy companies in China do not want to see this happen.”
Key questions surrounding the proposed tariffs remain unresolved. The White House has not said whether the 25% levy would be stacked on top of existing double-digit tariffs imposed last year on nearly every country, whether energy imports would be exempt, or on what legal authority it would rely.
Trump previously invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify his sweeping Liberation Day tariffs, but businesses and several states have challenged the move in court. The Supreme Court is now weighing whether the president overstepped his authority, potentially invalidating the tariffs and requiring refunds to U.S. importers.
The move could also complicate a year-long trade truce Trump reached with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in October. Under the agreement, the U.S. rolled back some tariffs on Chinese goods, while Beijing agreed to lift its boycott of American soybeans and ease restrictions on rare earth exports critical to U.S. defense and manufacturing.
“President Trump is looking at these protests in Iran as a very serious inflection point in the regime’s continued survival. And as often is the case, President Trump is leaning on levers of economic statecraft, while keeping open the possibility of military action or other types of non-military actions meant to support the Iranian people,” Burnham said. “But it remains unclear how exactly it will be applied to China.”
Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, responded by saying Beijing would “take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”
Sobolik, however, argued that granting China an exemption would be an “enormous signal of weakness and a lack of resolve” to Xi.
Trump has increasingly signaled that military action against Iran remains on the table, telling anti-government demonstrators the U.S. “stands ready to help,” as death tolls have surpassed 2,500 by some estimates. The president also warned Tuesday that the U.S. will “take very strong action” if Iranian authorities follow through on threats to execute protesters.
Sobolik said neither China nor Russia is likely to intervene directly.
“Putin is bogged down in a neighboring country. And China — the People’s Liberation Army — while it is growing increasingly strong and capable, it cannot match the U.S. military for power projection,” Sobolik said. “They only have a small handful of overseas military bases, and their global logistics and joint operation capability just do not match what we can do.”
Burnham added that Beijing has signaled Tehran is “largely on its own,” pointing to the 12-day war in June when U.S. forces bombed an Iranian nuclear enrichment site.
“China offered rhetorical support to Iran, but the support really didn’t extend further than that,” Burnham said. “And in this particular case — even prior to the escalation of the protests, and the escalation of President Trump’s rhetoric against the clerical regime — China patently stated that it will not give security guarantees to Tehran and that it view Tehran’s much more solely as a partner with shared interests, rather than that as an ally, that’s worth spending military support to protect.”
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