A plurality of voters are still undecided on which of the three major candidates to back just over three months before the GOP primary to replace former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, according to new polling.
An Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday found 24% of likely GOP primary voters support Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr, 21% back former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron and 14% support businessman Nate Morris. Barr, who represents a central Kentucky district, leads Cameron with the survey’s 4.2% margin of error, meaning the two are statistically tied for first place.
Thirty-eight percent of likely primary voters are undecided, however, and 4% are supporting another candidate aside from the three front-runners.
“With just over three months until primary day, Rep. Barr and former Attorney General Cameron start this race as frontrunners, while Nate Morris follows within striking distance,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement accompanying the poll.
“Barr’s support is highest among male voters, 27%, voters over 70, 38%, and voters with a college or postgraduate degree, at 31%, while Cameron’s support peaks among voters in their 40s and 50s at 25%,” Kimball continued.
Barr’s campaign touted the independent survey’s results showing him leading the field ahead of the May 19 primary.
“This poll shows what Kentuckians have been seeing on the ground for months: Andy Barr is the strongest candidate in this race,” Barr campaign spokesman Alex Bellizzi said in a statement, adding Barr is crushing the field in the money race.
Barr’s campaign account ended 2025 with $6.5 million in the bank compared to Cameron at $630,000 and Morris at $1.4 million, according to recent Federal Election Commission filings.
“No one – including Andy Barr – thinks Andy Barr is winning. This poll is unserious and silly,” Cameron campaign manager Nathanael Hirt said in a statement. “Polls one day ago and two weeks ago showed Daniel up double digits. Nothing moves that fast except lies.”
A pro-Cameron survey, first reported by the Daily Caller in January, showed the former attorney general and unsuccessful 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee with a 15-point lead over Barr (40% to 25%) with Morris trailing at 13%.
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk recently donated $10 million to a super PAC supporting Morris, representing the former DOGE advisor’s largest contribution he’s ever donated to a Senate candidate.
“Up until last month, most polls showed Nate in the single digits and anywhere from 30-40 points behind first place. The last two polls published show him surging and within 10 points of the lead,” Morris campaign spokesman Conor McGuinness said in a statement, adding that Morris is the only candidate trending in the right direction.
The survey of 523 likely voters was conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2. The Emerson College survey also found that McConnell has just a 15% job approval rating.
The independent poll has markedly different results than internal surveys released on behalf of several candidates in recent weeks.
A recent poll commissioned on behalf of the Morris campaign found the wealthy businessman surging in the race with 18% of the primary vote, though still trailing Cameron and Barr, who received 29% and 21% of the vote respectively.
President Donald Trump, whose endorsement can often be make-or-break for candidates in contested GOP primaries, has yet to intervene in the Kentucky Senate race.
Both Barr and Morris are touting endorsements from notable Trump allies.
Republican New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, former Trump White House physician and Republican Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson and women’s sports advocate Riley Gaines are among those backing Barr.
Morris is endorsed by Turning Point Action, Republican Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno and former White House advisor Steve Bannon.
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