Vulnerable Dem Sen Faces Worse Electoral Odds Than Previously Realized In Key Swing State

Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s race in the key swing state may be far closer than expected, according to multiple reports.

Baldwin is currently in a race against Republican opponent Eric Hovde headed into the hotly-contested November elections. Though previous polling placed Baldwin clearly in the lead, new poll results show that the gap is much smaller than imagined, according to the Cook Political Report.

Baldwin only has a two-point lead over Hovde, according to a Cook poll released on Thursday. By numbers, Baldwin retains support among 49% of voters, compared to 47% with Hovde.

The new results reveal a stark contrast from previous polls, which depicted Baldwin up by 7 points ahead of Hovde, according to the Wisconsin.

“In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican businessman Eric Hovde by only two points,” the Cook Political Report poll reads.

Should Hovde win in November, it could shift the tides of the congressional makeup and give the GOP the majority in the Senate, according to Axios. Several Democratic operatives have said there are “alarm bells” over the risk Baldwin loses the critical race. Axios’ own internal polling matched what Cook Political Report reported this week.

Republicans have a 35% spending advantage in Wisconsin over Democrats, undoubtedly helpful to Hvode, according to Axios. And a Super Political Action Committee (PAC) associated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is pouring an additional $17 million into Wisconsin, while Hovde is making his own $2 million investment, Axios reported.

“Tammy Baldwin and her allies are panicking because momentum is on our side and they know we can WIN this race,” Hovde said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter) on Saturday.

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