A dark horse is a previously lesser-known person, team or other entity that emerges to prominence in a situation, especially in a competition involving multiple rivals, that is unlikely to succeed but has a fighting chance, unlike the underdog who is expected to lose.
The term comes from horse racing and horse betting jargon for any new but promising horse. It has since found usage mostly in other sports, sports betting, and sports journalism and to lesser extent in nascent business environments, such as experimental technology and startup companies.
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Origin
The term began as horse racing parlance for a race horse that is unknown to gamblers and thus difficult to establish betting odds for.
The first known mention of the concept is in Benjamin Disraeli's novel The Young Duke (1831). Disraeli's protagonist, the Duke of St. James, attends a horse race with a surprise finish: "A dark horse which had never been thought of, and which the careless St. James had never even observed in the list, rushed past the grandstand in sweeping triumph."
Usage
Politics
The concept has been used in political contexts in countries such as Iran, the Philippines, Russia, Egypt, Finland, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Examples of dark horse candidates for the United States presidency include:
James K. Polk, a relatively unknown Tennessee politician who won the Democratic Party's 1844 presidential nomination over a host of better-known candidates. Polk won the nomination on the ninth ballot at the 1844 Democratic National Convention, and went on to become the country's eleventh president in the 1844 United States presidential election.
Franklin Pierce, a former US Representative and Senator and practicing lawyer who was barely known outside his home state of New Hampshire chosen as the Democratic nominee at the 1852 Democratic National Convention on the 49th ballot over many other known candidates and later elected in the 1852 United States presidential election in a landslide as the fourteenth president over the popular Whig Party nominee, Mexican-American War hero Winfield Scott.
Abraham Lincoln, a former one-term Representative and a practicing lawyer barely known outside his home state of Illinois chosen as the Republican nominee and elected in the 1860 United States presidential election as the sixteenth president in 1860 over a divided Democratic Party.
Rutherford B. Hayes, former US Representative and Governor of Ohio elected as the nineteenth president in the 1876 United States presidential election in a controversial decision despite losing the popular vote.
James A. Garfield, elected as the twentieth president in the 1880 United States presidential election; in the beginning of that same year, Garfield was a rising star in the Republican Party but had no interest in the presidency and endorsed John Sherman, the current Secretary of the Treasury. However, the 1880 Republican National Convention became deadlocked due to a split in the delegates between former Republican president Ulysses S. Grant, who was running for a non-consecutive third term, Senator James G. Blaine, and Sherman. The party sought a compromise candidate, and they opted to select Garfield over the latter's objections. Garfield, however, would be assassinated just six months into his term.
Sport
The term has been used in sport to describe teams and athletes who unexpectedly outperformed their expectations in a competition. Examples include the Los Angeles Kings during the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs (who placed 1st despite being an 8th-seed entry into the playoffs); Bulgaria at the 1994 FIFA World Cup; Croatia at the 1998 FIFA World Cup and 2018 FIFA World Cup (who placed 2nd despite being ranked 20th in the FIFA World Rankings), Morocco at the 2022 FIFA World Cup (who placed 4th despite being ranked 23rd in the FIFA World Rankings); and Turkey at the 2002 FIFA World Cup (who placed 3rd despite being ranked 31st in the FIFA World Rankings).
Media
The term has been also used in films, television series and video games for award seasons to describe then-unknowingly artists, filmmakers and game developers who beating out fellow competitors that heavily favored to win, most notably the Academy Awards and D.I.C.E. Awards. For example:
An early dark horse candidate of the Academy Awards was Cecil B. DeMille’s circus epic The Greatest Show on Earth, won the Academy Award for Best Picture over the frontrunners Fred Zinnemann’s western High Noon and John Ford’s romantic comedy-drama The Quiet Man. Despite their upsets, the Academy defended their decision for DeMille that it likely his only personal Oscar win.
Marisa Tomei, an underdog candidate, unexpectedly won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress for her comedic performance in My Cousin Vinny – previously considered the least likely to win.
A Palme d'Or-winning South Korean black comedy film Parasite unexpectedly won the Academy Award for Best Picture over a WWI adventure film 1917, the former made the first for a non-English-language film to win Best Picture.
A puzzle stealth game Untitled Goose Game won the D.I.C.E. Award for Game of the Year, a rare feat for an independent video game, over AAA games Control and Outer Wilds.
Crunchyroll Anime Awards is notoriously known for unexpectedly awarding the Anime of the Year or other categories to lesser-known anime series over fan-favorite competitors. In an inauguration edition, MAPPA's yaoi sports Yuri on Ice made the highest "clean sweep" with all of its seven nominations including Anime of the Year over My Hero Academia – considered one of the biggest upsets in the anime industry. A similar occurrence has been made in the following editions, such as the video game-adapted anime series Cyberpunk: Edgerunners and the manhwa series Solo Leveling notoriously won the Anime of the Year with their respective editions.
Dara won the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 for Bulgaria for the first time, despite being 15th in the odds after the rehearsals.