“I never guess. It is a shocking habit — destructive to the logical faculty.”
— Arthur Conan Doyle, The Sign of the Four (1890)
“There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a random one (...). In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007), p. 142.
“All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavour to find out what you don't know by what you do; that's what I called "guessing what was at the other side of the hill."”
— Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, statement in conversation with John Crocker and Crocker's wife (4 September 1852), as quoted in The Croker Papers: The Correspondence and Diaries of the Late Right Honourable John Wilson Croker, LL.Dm F.R.S, Secretary of the Admiralty from 1809 to 1830 (1884), edited by Louis J. Jennings, Vol.III, p. 276.

Quotes via Wikiquote (CC BY-SA), each with its original source.

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