CNN hosts Brianna Keilar and Boris Sanchez appeared stunned Wednesday as their network’s senior data reporter Harry Enten told them about the shift in black voters from President Joe Biden to former President Donald Trump.
Trump has narrowed his deficit with Biden among black Americans with the current president leading the former president 70% to 18%, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found. Enten said if Trump maintains this support, it would be remarkable since he is a Republican, and Keilar and Sanchez seemed surprised by the swing, with all three noting its electoral significance.
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“Take a look at the numbers now and compare it to where we were four years ago at this particular point among black voters and we see a clear decline in support,” Enten said. “At this point, Joe Biden is just getting 70% of the black vote. Four years ago at this point, he was at 81%. Look at that doubling of support for Donald Trump, from 10% up to 21%. Boris, Brianna, if that held through the election, it would be the best performance for a Republican presidential candidate among black voters in 64 years, since Richard Nixon back in 1960.”
Biden is also only leading Trump at 47% to 42% among Hispanic voters, according to the NYT/Siena poll.
“Now, if you want to break down the black electorate and figure out where exactly is the declining support for Joe Biden is coming from, take a look at this age breakdown,” he continued. “Look here: if you look at those black voters aged 50 and over, they’re still overwhelmingly supporting Joe Biden. Look at that. 85% to 8%. But look at black voters under the age of 50. Donald Trump, in a recent average of polls, is getting, get this, 27% support from them, while Joe Biden is just at 64%.”
“Yeah, that is huge, that number there,” Keilar said. “What kind of impact are we talking about? What kind of impact could this have on the election, Harry?”
“Obviously those are national polls, but let’s say that we funneled this down to the state level, right. This declining level of support among black voters for Joe Biden, what type of damage would that do to him in the Electoral College? Well, if you just took that into account and didn’t shift any other voters, take a look here,” Enten said. “In 2020, based upon the current apportionment, Joe Biden would win 303 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 235. But take into account that shift among black voters. Now, with just this shift among black voters, Donald Trump wins in the Electoral College, 291 electoral votes to 247.”
Enten recently said Trump’s lead in the sun belt states of Nevada, Georgia and Arizona is disastrous for Biden’s reelection chances and due to the former president’s coalition consisting of more nonwhite voters.
“Why is that? Take a look at the states that shift,” Enten continued. “You would see that the states that shift are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania … and Wisconsin. That alone would do it. And that is why black voters are so pivotal to Joe Biden’s chances to win re-election.”
Trump is leading Biden by 13% among likely voters in Nevada, 9% in Georgia and 6% in Arizona, according to the NYT/Siena survey.
“Harry Enten, alarms going off on the Democratic side, a big opening for Republicans,” Sanchez said. “That is an alarm right there, Harry Enten.”
“It’s a huge alarm,” the date reporter responded. “It’s spiraling. It’s ambulance, it’s police sirens, it’s any alarm you can think of that should be what’s going off on the Democratic side. These numbers, to be honest, could be deadly to Joe Biden’s campaign.”
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