Republicans were roundly thrashed in the 2025 mid-mid-terms while Democrats found slivers of hope and energy. Attention now turns to 2026. In America, campaigning, like the NBA season, never ends.
History says that absent a war, the party out of the White House typically picks up nine seats in the House, barely enough to utter the words Speaker Jeffries, while the Senate is essentially a push. Ergo, with 2025 wind at their backs, Democrats are licking their chops. But this cycle will be subject to exceptional political winds. The outcome is very much up in doubt. Don’t measure the drapes just yet, Hakeem.
This mid-term’s novelties start with President Trump, by far the most dominant political force the country has seen in years. The far-left will stop at nothing to slow Trump, but then, they would do that anyway. The novelty here is Trump’s ability and willingness to engage with voters directly to support Republican candidates. The flip side is how he drives up Democratic turnout, which in 2025 was substantial.
Next, we have the ongoing leftward lurch of the Democratic Party. Moderate Democrats are turning leftist while leftists are becoming socialists. This may work in blue-state Virginia and New Jersey, but it won’t fly in most of the country.
Enter the new face of the Democratic Party, whether they like it or not, the communist New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. Soon a whisper campaign will develop that Mamdani should run for president in 2028. He won’t deny it credibly. Running for president would help him “get his message out.”
Democrats will now be stuck with a nightmare worse than Trump. Republicans previously had independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Democratic Rep. AOC of New York to use as scarecrows. For pure Exorcist scary, nothing will beat Mayor metro beard with a huge portion of America’s voters.
Republicans are going to hang Mamdani around every Democrat’s neck like a rotting fish – and Democrats can do nothing about it without infuriating their rabid base.
Democrats’ eventual defense against Mamdani will be the awesome damage he wreaks on the Big Apple, but his wreck and ruin won’t manifest for months and years. So, for now, they’re stuck with the rotting fish.
The wave of congressional map redistricting presents another complicating factor in assessing the mid-terms. Democrats will gain seats in a few states and lose seats in others. It could all net out as a push; but maybe not. Republicans look to have a slight edge on this score.
A third factor will be Trump’s mass deportations, now pushing 2 million. For the left, the result is violence and political energy. For the right, deportations mean Trump is doing what he said he would do.
The deportations’ less obvious consequence is that many of these now missing illegals were formerly Democratic voters.
Yes, Democrats insist voter fraud is negligible, and the legacy media parrots the claim. We’ll see. Don’t be surprised if the 2026 after-action detailed voting assessments show suspicious drops in Democratic voting in particular districts. If so, then this could make a difference in close races. Advantage: Republicans.
A final warning for Republicans regarding Mamdani in 2028. Yes, he is a communist. Yes, he has no experience. Yes, he just won the mayoralty of a city. He’s not even a small-state governor.
But remember, Donald Trump was a New York real estate developer and TV personality before 2016. And Barry O was a Chicago activist and then a two-year U.S. senator before running for president. Barry O won primarily on political charisma and a gift for gab. Mamdani has little else. Beware.
J.D. Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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