← 2026 Election Tracker · U.S. Senate
Incumbent: John Cornyn (Republican) · not seeking re-election in this race
IJR is not affiliated with any campaign and makes no political contributions. Boosts move coverage; membership funds the newsroom.

2026 Texas attorney general race · same ballot
2026 Texas governor's race · same ballot
2026 Texas House race — Jodey C. Arrington's seat · same ballot
2026 Texas House race — Brian Babin's seat · same ballot
2026 Texas House race — John R. Carter's seat · same ballot2026 Texas House race — Henry Cuellar's seat · same ballot
| 46.7 |
| 47.2 |
| — |
| Paxton+0.5 |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 9/25 – 10/5 | 50 | 47 | 1 | Talarico+3 |
| YouGov | 9/28 – 10/5 | 50 | 44 | — | Talarico+6 |
| New York Times/Siena | 9/21 – 9/30 | 51 | 45 | — | Talarico+6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/28 – 9/29 | 46 | 45 | 4 | Talarico+1 |
| Fox News | 9/24 – 9/28 | 51 | 49 | — | Talarico+2 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 9/18 – 9/28 | 45 | 45 | 2 | Tie |
| Pulse Decision Science | 9/24 – 9/27 | 45 | 48 | — | Paxton+3 |
| BIG DATA POLL | 9/24 – 9/26 | 46.8 | 44.9 | — | Talarico+1.9 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 9/19 – 9/22 | 49 | 44 | — | Talarico+5 |
| Marist Poll | 9/17 – 9/20 | 50 | 44 | — | Talarico+6 |
| Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 9/15 – 9/19 | 47 | 46 | — | Talarico+1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. | 9/15 | 46 | 43 | — | Talarico+3 |
| Emerson College | 9/12 – 9/14 | 47 | 46 | — | Talarico+1 |
| Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media | 9/12 – 9/14 | 47 | 46 | — | Talarico+1 |
| SoCal Strategies | 9/13 | 50 | 45 | — | Talarico+5 |
| AARP | 9/10 | 48 | 44 | — | Talarico+4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 9/8 – 9/10 | 46 | 43 | — | Talarico+3 |
| YouGov | 9/9 | 48 | 43 | — | Talarico+5 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 8/30 – 9/1 | 48 | 44 | — | Talarico+4 |
| Overton Insights | 8/24 – 8/26 | 50 | 50 | — | Tie |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 8/5 – 8/13 | 42 | 39 | — | Talarico+3 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 8/5 – 8/13 | 42 | 39 | — | Talarico+3 |
| Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media | 8/13 | 46 | 47 | — | Paxton+1 |
| Emerson College | 8/9 – 8/10 | 46 | 47 | — | Paxton+1 |
| Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media | 8/9 – 8/10 | 46 | 47 | — | Paxton+1 |
| Texas Southern University/Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 7/27 – 8/2 | 47 | 45 | — | Talarico+2 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 7/30 – 7/31 | 48 | 46 | — | Talarico+2 |
| YouGov Blue (D) | 7/15 – 7/31 | 48 | 45 | — | Talarico+3 |
| 254 Labs / YouGov Blue | 7/15 – 7/31 | 48 | 45 | — | Talarico+3 |
| 254 Labs | 7/15 – 7/31 | 48 | 45 | — | Talarico+3 |
| 254 Labs/YouGov | 7/15 – 7/31 | 48 | 45 | — | Talarico+3 |
| Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School | 7/27 – 7/30 | 47 | 43 | — | Talarico+4 |
| Texas Southern University | 7/27 – 7/30 | 47 | 45 | 2 | Talarico+2 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | 7/27 – 7/30 | 47 | 43 | — | Talarico+4 |
| Bush School/Recon MR | 7/27 – 7/30 | 47 | 43 | — | Talarico+4 |
| TSU/YouGov | 7/27 – 7/30 | 47 | 45 | — | Talarico+2 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 7/23 – 7/27 | 51 | 48 | — | Talarico+3 |
| FOX News | 7/23 – 7/27 | 51 | 48 | — | Talarico+3 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 7/15 – 7/17 | 45 | 40 | — | Talarico+5 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 7/15 – 7/17 | 45 | 40 | 1 | Talarico+5 |
| A2 Insights | 6/23 – 6/28 | 48 | 46 | — | Talarico+2 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 6/19 – 6/27 | 47 | 47 | — | Tie |
| NY Times/Siena | 6/19 – 6/27 | 47 | 47 | — | Tie |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | 6/21 | 47 | 49 | — | Paxton+2 |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 6/5 – 6/12 | 42 | 43 | — | Paxton+1 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 6/5 – 6/12 | 42 | 43 | 3 | Paxton+1 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | 6/1 – 6/4 | 46 | 46 | — | Tie |
| Quantus Insights (R) | 6/3 – 6/4 | 43 | 45 | — | Paxton+2 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 5/27 – 5/28 | 47 | 44 | 1 | Talarico+3 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 5/27 – 5/28 | 47 | 44 | — | Talarico+3 |