EXCLUSIVE: Jasmine Crockett Holds Healthy Lead In Hypothetical 2026 Senate Race, Shock Poll Shows

Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett is the preferred candidate among Texas Democratic voters to run for Senate in 2026, according to recent polling.

Crockett leads a hypothetical primary field with 35% of likely Democratic voters, followed by former Democratic Texas Rep. Colin Allred at 20%, former Presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro tied at 13%. Just 18% of voters said they were undecided about their preferred nominee to challenge Republican Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth Senate term.

The poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. The NRSC is supporting Cornyn’s campaign against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The multimodal survey of 566 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between July 4 and 7. Though Crockett is leading the field well outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.03%, the liberal firebrand has not signaled that she is considering a run for the upper chamber.

Crockett has emerged as one of the leading voices in the party as Democrats fight over the best approach back to power. She frequently draws controversy through her inflammatory remarks and has referred to Trump supporters as mentally ill.

Allred, who previously blew through tens of millions of dollars in a failed run against Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz last November, is the only well-known candidate in the race thus far. He trails Crockett by fifteen percentage points in a hypothetical matchup.

Spokespersons for Crockett and Allred did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

Castro and perennial candidate O’Rourke, who came up short in previous runs for Senate in 2018 and the governorship 2022, are both reportedly mulling runs. The deadline to enter the primary contest is the first week of December.

The polling is part of a broader survey the Republican group conducted in five battleground states — Texas, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina and Maine — that are likely to determine whether Senate Republicans can defend and expand their 53-seat majority during the midterms.

The group did not survey a hypothetical Democratic primary contest in Georgia, which Republicans view as a top pick-up opportunity due to the state’s red leanings and voters rejecting former Vice President Kamala Harris last November by more than 100,000 votes. The incumbent, Democratic Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, has no well-known Democratic challengers and is likely to cruise to the general election contest.

Though most of the primary field in the five states is not settled, the most far-left or vocally anti-Trump candidate is leading or within striking distance of supplanting the frontrunner in the majority of the states surveyed, according to the NRSC polling memo.

Early support for left-wing candidates in key states comes as the left appears to be emboldened with socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani’s shock win in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary in June. The Democratic party’s base is also urging lawmakers to aggressively resist the Trump administration with some reportedly calling on Democrats to be “willing to get shot” to thwart the president’s agenda and defy the rule of law.

Nearly a quarter of likely Democratic primary voters in the five states believe the Constitution should be “replaced or fundamentally changed,” according to the survey.

Far-left Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who has voiced support for Mamdani, is trailing Democratic Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens within the poll’s margin of error. The crowded primary field is laying the groundwork to be a bitter intraparty fight for the nomination and could bruise the candidate that advances to the general election.

Democratic Michigan state legislator Mallory McMorrow notches just 11% of Democratic primary voters, but the liberal candidate has never run statewide before nor spent significant resources on paid media.

The most left-wing candidate in Minnesota’s contested Democratic Senate primary also maintains a comfortable lead outside the poll’s margin of error. Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, who has embraced far-left positions on transgender issues and abortion, leads Democratic Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig 30% to 24%. Nearly half of likely Democratic primary voters are undecided.

A significant number of Democratic primary voters are also undecided about their preferred candidates in Senate races in Maine and North Carolina. The seats in both states are currently held by Republicans and are viewed by Democrats as potential flip opportunities.

Though Democratic Maine Governor Janet Mills tops former congressional staffer Jordan Wood by 14 percentage points, 51% of likely Democratic primary voters are undecided. Mills has not closed the door on a run and is likely to come under scrutiny for her views on women’s sports and alleged former cocaine use if she jumps into the race.

Republican Maine Sen. Susan Collins decisively won reelection in 2020 despite Trump losing the state by nine percentage points.

In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is the preferred candidate for 39% of likely Democratic voters — the most support for any individual candidate measured across the five states. However, a greater number of voters in the state are undecided.

Cooper is reportedly leaning toward jumping into the Democratic primary. He is likely to face criticism for vetoing a state ban on child sex-change procedures in 2023 if he makes a bid for the open seat vacated by Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis.

The NRSC poll also found that the top concern of Democratic voters in the five states were government entitlement programs, with 44% of those saying it was their most-important issue. The economy was second, with 23% of voters pointing to it as their main concern.