South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is nothing if not an optimist. As Senate Republican Campaign Committee lead, Scott hopes to score two seats net in the coming mid-terms. He calls it his “stretch goal”.
How much of a stretch? Think gold medal gymnast Simon Biles prepping before a competition, legs wide, chin to the mat. Biles can do it. Can Scott?
Conventional wisdom says mid-term elections are tough on the president’s party. Absent a wave or war, the president’s party typically loses 9 seats in the House, but circumstances suggest Republicans might still keep their majority with luck.
The same basis shows Republicans face a range of outcomes between losing two and gaining two seats, net. Scott’s stretch looks plausible. In fact, the historical average is a push — neither net gaining nor losing a seat.
Consider the macro political environment. Democrats collectively are doing yeoman’s work exercising every politician’s right to act stupid. Defending wasteful spending and embracing legislation that replaces the word “mother” with “inseminated person” doesn’t fly with most Americans.
Republicans could rescue the Democrats, however. The big test will be whether they emerge unscathed and minimally embarrassed from the budget fight complete with extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts in toto.
Five seats seem in play. Republicans’ best shot is Georgia. If incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff ran in a typical bluish-purple state, then he would likely cruise to victory. But this is reddish-purple George which Trump won by 2.2 points.
Ossoff is likely to face highly popular Gov. Brian Kemp. Recent polls show Kemp beating Ossoff by about five points.
Term-limited Kemp at 62-years old and facing good prospects would seem sure to run. If he doesn’t, the Republican bench looks thin and so a sense of duty may compel him to run. Assuming Kemp runs, count this a Republican pickup.
Republicans might also gain seats in Michigan and Minnesota. Trump won Michigan by 1.4 points confirming the state is now truly purple. Republicans have two strong contenders in Tudor Dixon and Mike Rogers.
The Democrats’ best option would probably by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer who declined to run, her sights set on the White House in 2028. That leaves Biden Transportation Secretary and carpetbagger “Pothole Pete” Buttigieg leading a parade of pretenders. Count this one as lean Republican.
In contrast, Minnesota is blue with Democratic Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan running. Republicans look to put up 21-year U.S. Marine and Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze.
This race should be interesting as Flanagan is a radical leftist and Gov. Tim Walz acolyte running against a former jarhead and SEAL. We’ll be generous for now and rate this as a true toss-up.
Republicans also have two tough seats to defend. Maine’s Susan Collins is defending in a state Harris won by almost 7 points, yet Collins fits Maine and Maine knows Collins. So far, no notable Democrat has stepped up to be chopped down by Collins; Republican hold.
The most at-risk Republican incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis. North Carolina leans Republican, but not by much and Tillis won re-election in 2020 with just 48.7% of the vote. Knowing Tillis might face a challenge from the right, former Republican Governor Pat McCrory says Trump is already engaged.
This race hangs on whether popular former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper jumps in as expected. If so, then this becomes a toss-up. If Cooper declines, then Tillis is likely to survive again. Count this a toss-up.
To sum, the best one can say is that, as usual, the outcomes all depend on who runs. Candidate quality will be decisive, but Republicans seem likely to pick up 1 and maybe even Scott’s 2 stretch. It pays to be optimistic.
JD Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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