A new analysis of 2024 election data, polling and surveys released Monday identified several key longer-term trends that could spell trouble for Democrats in future elections.
Blue Rose Research, a Democrat-aligned data firm, published a 33-page report titled “2024 Retrospective and Looking Forward,” drawing on 26 million responses from voters to make its analysis “as representative as possible.” The report highlights how younger voters and the politically unengaged are swinging toward Republicans, among other findings that show Democrats may have enduring political problems on their hands.
Blue Rose Research’s study points out that the only demographic group of voters aged 26 or younger that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the 2024 election was minority women. A majority of men of all races and white women in the same age bracket supported President Donald Trump at rates above 50%. The report also highlights that Trump likely outright won naturalized citizen voters who were born outside of the U.S., a major accomplishment given that they represent approximately 10% of the overall electorate.
“Precinct-level election results points to Trump making considerable gains in Black, Hispanic, and Asian immigrant neighborhoods throughout the country,” Blue Rose Research’s report states. “Our best estimate is that immigrant voters swung from a Biden+27 voting bloc in 2020 to a Trump+1 group in 2024.”
Voters also considered Harris to be more ideologically extreme than Trump during the 2024 election. In addition, most voters believed Trump had the “ability to make [their] life better.”
The analysis also found that voters were far more concerned about the cost of living than they were about many of the issues Democrats own, including climate change, student loan debt, abortion and LGBTQ issues. Moreover, voters had far more trust in the GOP to address the economy and inflation than they had in the Democrats.
Blue Rose Research’s report also points out that politically disengaged voters are now much more inclined to support the GOP than Democrats; if all registered voters showed up to cast a ballot in the 2024 election, Trump would have won the national popular vote by nearly five percentage points instead of the 1.5% national popular vote victory he secured.
“There’s a turnout story this cycle – but a different one than we’re used to talking about. With the combination of less-engaged and less-likely voters leaning more GOP, a larger electorate meant a more Republican electorate,” the Blue Rose Research report states. “Projecting onto the full voter file, if every registered voter voted, it’s likely that Trump would have won by even more.”
Young people, certain minority demographics and lower-propensity voters all breaking away from the Democrats in significant numbers poses a potentially severe electoral challenge for the party going forward. A 2030 census update from December 2024 suggests Democrats could lose both up to a dozen House seats and electoral college votes, according to Axios.
Moreover, the Democrats currently lack a clear national leader and have recorded all-time low favorability ratings. As the party does not have enough legislative seats to obstruct the Trump agenda, they also face a tough map in the 2026 Senate elections following a string of retirements this year.
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