Republicans could face an uphill battle to flip an open New Hampshire Senate seat during November’s midterm elections, according to new polling.
A NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll released Monday found that New Hampshire Rep. Chris Pappas, the expected Democratic nominee, leads both former Republican New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown in head-to-head matchups. Sununu, who is mounting a comeback bid with the support of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, performs significantly better than Brown in the survey.
Democratic New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s decision to not run for reelection has forced Democrats’ to defend another open seat and buoyed Republicans’ hopes of adding to their 53-seat majority.
Brown — the unsuccessful 2014 GOP nominee for the same seat — trails Pappas by a landslide margin, 28% to 45.8%. More than a quarter of respondents are undecided. Despite entering the contest months prior to Sununu, the former Massachusetts lawmaker has failed to attract support from national Republicans.
Pappas conversely leads Sununu by single digits with 22% unsure. Just over 42% of voters back Pappas while roughly 35% support Sununu.
The survey also found that Democrats have an 11-point advantage (45.2% to 35.6%) on the generic ballot question of which party should control the federal government. The result is a six-point improvement for Democrats from when the pollster asked the question in July. Nearly 20% of respondents in the battleground state were undecided.
Trump’s approval in the Granite State is also 22 points underwater, according to the survey. Just a third of voters — 32% of respondents — approve of Trump’s job performance.
“These are the worst numbers for Republicans in our past three surveys of the state,” Praecones Analytica pollster Dr. Jonathan Klingler said in a statement accompanying the poll. “The trends over time show the goodwill President [Donald] Trump and the GOP enjoyed earlier in the year has gone, which should be alarming to New Hampshire Republicans.”
A Senate GOP leadership-aligned group circulated polling in September showing that Sununu would be a more competitive general election candidate. Trump has yet to make an endorsement in the race.
Republicans are favored to retain control of the Senate during the midterms, but are laser-focused on defending GOP-held seats in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. Senate Republicans’ campaign arm is also working to flip blue seats in Michigan, Georgia and Minnesota.
“I feel good about where we are,” Thune told Fox News’ Bret Baier in December. “Our incumbents who are running for reelection are strong incumbents. They’re veterans. They know how to win campaigns. And we’ve got some open seats that present an opportunity for us to pick up a seat or two.”
“When a lot of the effects of some of the things that we’ve done start playing out in front of the American people, they’re going to say, ‘This is a team we want to keep in place,’” Thune added.
The survey of 603 registered voters was conducted between Dec. 26 and Dec. 28. The poll had a 95% credibility interval of plus or minus 3.99%.
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