Pollster Nate Silver disclosed in a Wednesday New York Times opinion piece that his “gut” tells him former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Trump currently holds narrow leads over Harris in all seven top swing states, according to the RealClear Polling averages. Silver wrote that the tight competition in these crucial states shows that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast” for the race’s outcome, noting that this is approximately what his own model predicts.
“Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’” Silver wrote. “So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”
“But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine. Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” he added. “And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
WATCH:
Prominent Pollster Says Kamala Harris Is ‘Mediocre At Best’ And Would ‘Probably Lose’ To Trump pic.twitter.com/Fikj3KBGpI
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 11, 2024
Silver in July, shortly before President Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, described the vice president as “mediocre at best” and said Trump would likely defeat her if she ended up replacing the president at the top of the Democratic ticket. However, he also said he believed Harris would be a better candidate than Biden.
“She is capable of actually prosecuting the case against Trump. You’re not lying to the American public about her fitness for office,” he said. “And you know what? She’ll probably lose, but Biden’s probably gonna lose too. What’s the world in which Biden wins that Harris doesn’t win? I mean, it’s like the worlds where Biden wins involve worlds where the polling is so far off we don’t know anything to begin with, or where Trump goes to jail or something. And like any Democrat can win under those conditions, any halfway competent Democrat. Maybe we’re not going to get more than a halfway competent option.”
Journalist Mark Halperin said Tuesday that Trump will be elected president on Nov. 5 if the current early voting trajectory “continues.”
“Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump’s going to be president on Election Day,” he said.
(Featured Image Media Credit: Screen Capture/CSPAN)
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