Data centered around atoll nations like the Maldives appear to show that many islands are either stabilized or have grown, despite claims that they would disappear within the century due to rising sea levels, The New York Times reported.
Several media outlets, including ABC News, CNBC and National Geographic, have published articles in recent years featuring claims that the Maldives – a small island nation located in the Indian Ocean – will mostly disappear due to sea level rise by 2100. However, scientists are using photo comparisons, as well as ocean currents, to predict how the islands will evolve, the NYT reported.
While currents can erode the shore, it also can bring fresh sand from coral reefs ashore, thus maintaining or even expanding islands, according to the NYT. A 2018 study published in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews compiled data from 709 islands and found that “no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted.”
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“’I’m confident that there’ll be islands in the Maldives’ 50 or 100 years from now,” Paul Kench, a climate researcher on the Maldivian island of Dhigulaabadhoo, told the NYT. “They’re not going to look like these islands; they’re going to be different. But there will be land here.”
Experts claimed that nearly 80% of the Maldives could be uninhabitable by 2050, ABC News reported in 2021, citing reports from NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey.
“If we have access to the technology and finance, I think we can save the Maldives. It is not all doomsday,” Shauna Aminath, former Maldivian environmental minister, told the NYT.
The New York Times did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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