The road for Democratic victories in the upcoming midterm elections may be a bumpy one.
That’s according to CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten, who appeared on “CNN News Central” Monday.
Enten pointed to recent CNBC and “Washington Post” polling that shows Democrats with an average four-point lead on the national House ballot.
He said this figure falls far below the party’s standing ahead of its successful House takeovers in 2006 and 2018.
“They show a big ‘Uh-oh!’ worry sign, at least compared to history,” Enten said.
He noted Democrats held average generic ballot leads of 12 points in 2006 and 10 points in 2018 before winning control of the House.
“Yes, they’re ahead, but they’re ahead – I have to shrink down on the screen – by only four points, which is significantly less than what we saw in 2018 and 2006, when Democrats took back the house,” he said. “So as I said, this is an ‘uh-oh,’ this is a warning sign.”
Anchor John Berman added, “Because four isn’t 10. And it’s not 12.”
“No, no, they taught me that back in pre-K, that four is not 10 or 12,” Enten responded.
Enten said the numbers are more concerning given redistricting being pro-GOP.
Republicans’ advantage in congressional maps means Democrats may need to win the national House vote by roughly three to four percentage points just to secure a majority, leaving their current standing with virtually no margin for error, according to Enten.
“You are right on the edge with this four-point lead… right on the edge of even getting that majority,” Enten said.
He added the polling does not suggest Democrats are building an advantage that “guarantees them the House or anything close to a guarantee.”
Enten also pointed out
Democrats have yet to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s weakapproval ratings.
“There is a chunk of 2024 Trump voters who right now aren’t so hot to trot on Donald Trump but are still very much in the Republican camp,” Enten said.
“It’s interesting, they’re kind of outrunning Trump among Trump voters,” Berman said.