Analysts Warn Iran’s New Leader Could Tighten Regime’s Grip

The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader has raised concerns among analysts who say his leadership could strengthen the country’s security establishment and continue the policies of his father…

Andrew PowellMar 9, 20263 min read

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“His father had created the Bayt’s extensive apparatus as a hidden power structure to ensure continuity should he be eliminated — and through Mojtaba’s appointment, this is exactly what we will get,” he said.

President Donald Trump also reacted to the development during an interview with the New York Post.

Trump said he was “not happy with” Mojtaba Khamenei becoming Iran’s leader but declined to say how the United States might respond.

“Not going to tell you,” Trump said. “Not going to tell you. I’m not happy with him.”

Questions have also surfaced about whether Mojtaba could pursue reforms inside Iran.

However, an Iranian source familiar with the leadership transition told Fox News Digital that such expectations now appear unlikely.

“Previously there were whispers suggesting that if Mojtaba were to become the leader, he might introduce reforms that would both open up the domestic political space and bring a more interactive approach to foreign policy,” the source said.

“However, now this possibility seems very weak.”

The source added that Mojtaba’s selection occurred amid internal disputes and pressure from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“Mojtaba was chosen amid disputes, controversies, and pressure from the IRGC,” the source said, adding that he “owes his appointment to their support and therefore cannot act against their wishes.”

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program, said Mojtba’s rise reflects long-developing trends inside the country’s power structure.

“Despite donning a turban, Mojtaba is the product of the regime’s national security deep state,” Ben Taleblu said.

“Expect him to work with and through the IRGC to keep his hold on power.”

Opposition figures also expressed doubt that the leadership change will bring new policies.

“He’s the son of Khamenei and they have same ideology and they same strategy and they try to continue the same policy,” said Khalid Azizi of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran.

“So far it’s very difficult to say what he will be done and is he going to have a different policy? I don’t expect this.”

As Aarabi summarized, Mojtaba’s leadership may simply continue the path set by his father.

“In short,” he said, “Mojtaba is his father on steroids. He’s certainly no MBS.”