Business Leaders More Hopeful About Avoiding Recession With Trump’s Return, Survey Reveals

💼Business leaders projected that the odds of the U.S. economy entering into a recession were low ahead of President Donald Trump’s return to office, according to a recent survey from the National Association for 💼Business Economics (NABE).

The majority of NABE members surveyed, 82%, put the probability of a U.S. recession at 25% or lower over the next year, according to a survey published on Jan. 22. Of those surveyed, 62% reported no change in prices, while 30% reported higher prices, the smallest share since January 2021.

This marks an increase from NABE’s October 2024 survey, when only 56% of those surveyed put the probability of a U.S. recession at 25% or lower.

“The January 2025 NABE 💼Business Conditions Survey results reveal that 💼Business conditions remained relatively unchanged through the end of 2024, although a larger share of respondents than in the previous survey foresees higher prices going forward,” NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris wrote in the press release. “At the same time, the odds of a recession continue to diminish according to panelists, with the downside risks largely tied to uncertainty over the implementation and timing of policy proposals from the new administration.”