China Posts Export Rebound, but US Shipments Plunge as Trade Truce Enters Early Stages

China’s latest trade snapshot revealed a striking split in its global business: strong overall export growth paired with a steep collapse in shipments to the United States. According to The Associated Press , the…

Andrew PowellDec 8, 20253 min read

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Analysts said the November rebound may not yet capture the effects of the renewed trade truce reached in late October during the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea.

As part of the agreement, the U.S. rolled back certain Tariffs while China committed to ending export controls tied to rare earth materials.

“It’s likely that November Exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” said Lynn Song, ING Bank’s chief economist for Greater China.

Even with stronger export numbers, China’s broader economic signals remain mixed. Factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month, and the ongoing property slump continues to drag on consumer confidence and business investment.

Economists caution that it may take several months to see whether external demand is experiencing a true rebound following the trade truce.

Chinese officials appear focused on shoring up long-term stability. Xi presided over an annual economic planning conference on Monday, outlining goals for 2026 that emphasize “pursuing progress while ensuring stability.” Leaders reaffirmed a strategy centered on advanced manufacturing over the next five years.

Global uncertainty remains a persistent threat. Chi Lo, a strategist with BNP Paribas Asset Management, warned that calm conditions may not last as China-U.S. relations “remain in a stalemate” despite the temporary easing of trade tensions.

Still, some analysts see China strengthening its position in the global export market. Morgan Stanley projects the nation’s share of worldwide goods Exports will rise from roughly 15% today to 16.5% by 2030, driven by growth in high-tech sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics, and battery production.

“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies taking up active industrial policies, we believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market,” said Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Asia Economist.