CHUCK DEVORE: China, Russia, War, Peace, And Trump
While China rapidly expands its navy and nuclear weapons arsenal, and Russia remorselessly converts its economy to a wartime footing as it ramps up efforts to conquer Ukraine, events appear destined to come to a…
While China rapidly expands its navy and nuclear weapons arsenal, and Russia remorselessly converts its economy to a wartime footing as it ramps up efforts to conquer Ukraine, events appear destined to come to a head—before the year’s end.
America, under President Donald J. Trump and his national security team, is finally emerging out of a 35-year break from great power competition, its depreciating Cold War-era legacy weapons systems worn down from 20 years of counterinsurgency warfare and futile nation-building.
But it has emerged onto a rapidly shifting strategic playing field.
The U.S. and its allies, mainly Israel, have enjoyed a remarkable string of successes, culminating in operation Midnight Hammer, America’s globe-spanning bomber raid on Iran’s underground nuclear weapons complexes. Remarkably, Iran’s two most powerful allies—Russia and China—did nothing for Iran. Thus, Israel, with America’s backing, seized the initiative, destroying Hamas as a military force, degrading Hezbollah in Lebanon, such that its vaunted missile arsenal—Iran’s de facto deterrent against Israeli action—was neutralized, and inflicting terrible punishment on Yemen’s Houthi rebels. This, after the Assad regime in Syria came to a bloody end in December at the hands of rebels, eliminating a Russian/Iranian client state. Thus, Iran lost four key proxies that it has spent billions to equip and support with one purpose—paralyzing Israel into inaction long enough to deploy nuclear weapons.
But Israel outmaneuvered and outfought Iran and its proxies, allowing America to deal the coup de main on Iran’s nuclear ambitions—and Russia and China are the weaker for it.
The Middle East’s shift to a post-conflict period heightens the focus on Europe and the Indo-Pacific with two paths coming sharply into view, one of which is likely to crystalize by year-end.
The first path continues the national security wins seen under Trump’s leadership, with events happening in Russia at a rapid pace—but not to Putin’s liking. Trump, his patience with Putin’s bad faith at an end, has set the clock ticking on secondary sanctions on Russia’s extensive oil tanker ghost fleet—that nation’s most important tool to generate money for war. Trump is also opening the spigots of arm sales to NATO, allowing NATO to forward existing stockpiles to Ukraine. Combined with the failure of Russia’s increasingly bloody and futile “meat” attacks in Ukraine, it looks like there may actually be a viable plan to force Russia to the peace table.