CNN Data Guru Says Trump’s ‘Huge Gains’ With Minority Voters May Be Offset By ‘Small’ Losses Among ‘Key Demographic’

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Monday said former President Donald Trump’s substantial gains with nonwhite voters could be countered by a slight decline among “non-college white voters.”

Trump currently holds slim leads over Vice President Kamala Harris in all of the top seven battleground states, according to the RealClearPolling averages. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” suggested Trump risks losing the election in November if he doesn’t maintain his support among “non-college white voters,” a demographic that represents a significant share of American voters, particularly in certain critical battleground states.

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“It’s been a key demographic for him. It’s been his base and this is what’s so interesting, because we’ve seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump’s direction. So you would think his core group, his base of support would be doing the same. But in fact, it’s moving a little bit away from him. So this is Trump’s margin with non-college white voters,” Enten told host John Berman. “Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him, it’s actually moving slightly away. So you go back eight years ago, where he won ’em by 33, You go back four years ago, he won ’em by 31.”

“Now what we look is we see them, the latest average of polls, he’s only up by 27. Now that may not seem like a lot, but given that we’re seeing these double digit gains, say among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we’re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well,” he continued. “I think that’s a rather interesting development.”