Data Suggests A Key Red State Senate Seat Could Fall To Democrats

New polling data suggests that a Senate race in a state Trump won by double digits could fall to Democrats in the midterms.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted is facing a challenge from former three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his 2024 bid for reelection. But now just two years after President Donald Trump carried Ohio by 11 percentage points in the 2024 election, Brown is leading Husted by an eight-point margin 53% to 45%, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday.

Brown has 98% of support among Democrats, whereas Husted only has the support of 86% of support among Republicans, according to the poll.

Fifty-seven percent of Ohio residents view Trump negatively, while 42% still hold a favorable opinion, the poll found. Husted’s ratings are comparable to Trump’s ratings in the state, as 50% view him unfavorably and 41% view him favorably. Brown, on the other hand, holds a 53% favorable rating and 44% unfavorable rating.

Forty-six percent the poll’s respondents are concerned that Husted is too close to Trump. This includes 10% of those who are backing the incumbent senator.

Brown is receiving support from those who are not Democrats, attaining 31% of self-described non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of Republican voters, according to the survey.

The candidates are competing for the Senate seat that Husted currently holds after Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him to replace JD Vance when Vance became Vice President. Ohio’s 2026 Senate race is a special election, so the winner will have to run for reelection in 2028 in order to hold a full six-year term.