Energy Giants Warn Another Oil Price Spike Coming Soon

Leading executives at ExxonMobil and Chevron sounded an alarm during a recent Bernstein conference: Global oil inventories are plunging to dangerously low levels, setting the stage for a potential price explosion that could reshape economies and expose the fragility of our energy system.

“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean really, really low levels.” Exxon Mobil Senior Vice President Neil Chapman issued told the conference audience, adding that he expects inventories to reach a critical low point in just “two to three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.” Chapman’s models project Brent crude spiking to $150–$160 per barrel once the operational floor is reached, with demand destruction eventually restoring balance as prices for fuel rise to unaffordable levels for many.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth echoed this concern at the same conference, noting that the market’s buffers have been steadily eroded. “The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,” Wirth stated.

The warnings from the two largest U.S. majors highlight a critical disconnect: While paper markets continue to cling to diplomatic optimism, the physical market is running on fumes. It’s an inevitable outcome which I warned about way back in March, as it became evident this conflict would linger on far longer than President Trump’s initial “2 to 4 weeks” projection.

The root cause is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, now running into its 4th month despite all the noise about a “peace deal” being imminent. The effective blockade of this crucial chokepoint has removed 12–13 million barrels per day from markets—the largest supply disruption in history, according to the International Energy Agency. Strategic reserve releases and pre-war stockpiles have cushioned the blow so far, but those mitigations are exhausted. Goldman Sachs data shows