GOP Nominee In Key Governor Race Rises 10 Points In Polling Against Dem Frontrunner

Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial contest is tightening less than three months ahead of election day with Republican Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears within striking distance of her Democratic opponent, according to recent polling.

Earle-Sears, the GOP nominee for governor, trails former Democratic Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger by seven percentage points, according to a Roanoke College poll released Tuesday. A previous survey conducted by the pollster in May found the Democratic nominee leading Earle-Sears by 17 percentage points in the state’s 2025 governor race.

“The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads,” Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College said in a statement. “Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote.”

Though Spanberger has consistently led Earle-Sears in surveys over the past several months, the Republican candidate appears to be narrowing the polling deficit as both campaigns gear up for a final sprint toward November.

The Earle-Sears’ campaign has torched Spanberger for declining to specify how the former Democratic congresswoman would govern on transgender issues and sanctuary city policies while highlighting her voting record in support of former President Joe Biden’s policy agenda.

“That kind of beltway nonsense will only take us backwards,” Earle-Sears said in ad released