J.D. FOSTER: No Longer Crying Wolf: Foreign-Born Workers Are Taking Americans’ Jobs

Something very strange is going on in America’s labor market. The employer’s survey in the June jobs report showed 272,000 jobs gained in May, and nearly 2.8 million jobs over the past year. These are both amazing figures given that the economy is at full employment.

While the employer’s survey is surely fine, the household survey, also produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), tells a strikingly different story, almost as though the country had two different labor markets.

The household survey indicates total employment is up a mere 376,000 over the past year. How can the employer’s survey show nearly eight times more jobs gained in a year than the other perfectly good household survey?

The mystery deepens as, according to the household survey, employment by native-born workers is down 299,000 over the last year. Down. Big time. Ouch.

If total employment is flat and native-born employment is down, who makes up the difference? Foreign-born workers. It’s all in black and white in the BLS data.

Some might dismiss such disparate results between the two surveys by noting the household survey employs a smaller sample and is thus less reliable month-to-month. This is both correct and irrelevant. The comparisons above are year-over-year, a timeframe easily long enough to put the employer and household surveys on the same statistical footing.