JD Vance Leads Gavin Newsom In Head-To-Head 2028 Matchup: Poll

Vice President JD Vance has held onto a narrow lead over Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a new hypothetical poll of the 2028 presidential race.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows that 46% of participants would support Vance, 45% would vote for Newsom and 10% were undecided. Neither of the lawmakers have formally announced a bid for president, but are currently seen as their parties’ likely frontrunners in the next presidential race.

The poll is the latest in Emerson’s series of head-to-head match-ups between the vice president and governor, which found Vance less than a point ahead of Newsom in a late August poll. In July, Emerson’s poll had Vance leading Newsom by 3%.

“The 2026 congressional ballot and the hypothetical 2028 matchup between Vance and Newsom also remain unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling, said in a press release. “It will be interesting to see whether ‘threats to democracy’ will influence voter attitudes, or if the dominant factor continues to be the economy, which voters, particularly women and younger voters, see as heading in the wrong direction.”

The Democratic governor has been expanding his national profile this year, which has led him to become a leading voice in opposing Trump. Newsom also gained national attention for imitating the president’s communication style on social media.