A Tuesday poll showed Arizona Senate Republican candidate Kari Lake pulling ahead of Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, breaking with recent data showing Lake trailing by a significant margin.
The Data OrbitalĀ survey, which consisted of responses from 550 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.26%, found Lake receiving 45.2% support while Gallego received 44.5%, potentially representing a huge shift in the swing state race that has seen the Democratic candidate maintain a steady lead. However, the poll result could also be an outlier, with a Tuesday CNN survey of 781 likely voters finding Lake trailing by roughly 8%, and RealClear Polling (RCP)Ā showing Gallego leading by 4% on average.
Lake has consistently underperformed former President Donald Trump, with Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of 2.5% in the Grand Canyon State, according to RCP. The Democrats have spent $88.2 million on advertising for the Senate race since Labor Day, compared to just $29.7 million for Republicans, Politico reported on Oct. 18.
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Lakeās platform emphasizes border security, fresh water access, energy independence and reducing inflation, among a variety of other policy initiatives.
Immigration has been a hot-button issue in the Arizona senate rate, with Gallego adopting a more centrist stance on the matter since his campaign began. In August 2023, the Democratic congressman voiced support for Title 42, a Trump-era public health order that expelled certain migrants, marking a major shift from 2015 when he introduced legislation that would eliminate the term āillegal alienā from federal law.
The Democratic congressman has tried to distance himself from the Biden-Harris administration on the immigration issue, remarking in August that the White House hasnāt done enough in support of border security.
āI think thereās a lot of Democrats that donāt understand you can be for border security and for immigration reform,ā Gallego told Axios.
Another key issue in the Arizona senate race has been abortion, particularly after the Arizona Supreme Court on April 9 permitted an 1864 law to be enforced that effectively banned abortion except when the life of the mother is in danger. When Gallego stated that Lake was āincredibly thrilledā to ban abortion, Lake responded by noting the Democratic congressman had left his wife when she was nine months pregnant.
A report released by the Washington Free Beacon on Oct. 17 found that Gallego not only filed for divorce from his wife when she was ālikely to give birth any day,ā but also wanted her to pay his attorneyās fees.
āThe momentum is with President Trump and Kari Lake, and with record Republican early voting numbers, we are confident that Arizonans will deliver both Trump and Lake a victory one week from today on November 5th,ā a Lake spokesperson told the DCNF.
The Gallego campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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