Latest Straw Poll Indicates Voter Outlook Is Changing

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is building momentum in The Western Journal’s weekly 2028 Republican straw poll, posting another solid gain as the unofficial survey continues to track the mood of conservative readers.

Now, let’s be clear right out of the gate: this isn’t a scientific poll. It’s not claiming to predict the Republican nomination, and it’s not a nationwide snapshot of voters. What it does offer is a running look at how one segment of the conservative base is thinking as the next presidential cycle slowly begins to take shape. Every week, readers cast their votes through StrawPoll.US, and this week’s results brought a noticeable shift.

Rubio climbed to 50.3 percent, improving 2.2 percentage points from the previous week. That’s a commanding lead in this survey, and it’s the latest sign that his profile continues to grow after several high-profile appearances as America’s top diplomat.

Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance, who is widely viewed as the early front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination, slipped slightly. He finished with 24.4 percent, down 1.1 points from last week. Former Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie also edged lower, dropping 0.4 points to 10.3 percent.

Then there’s President Donald Trump.

Yes, the Constitution prevents him from seeking another term, but that didn’t stop some respondents from putting his name on the ballot anyway. Trump received 5.9 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who finished at 5.7 percent.

Here’s where things get interesting.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump has been weighing what role he wants to play in shaping the Republican Party’s future and, eventually, whom he might endorse when the race truly begins. That decision could carry enormous weight, especially if the field narrows to familiar names like Rubio and Vance.

Rubio has publicly said he does not intend to challenge Vance if the vice president runs, a statement that has fueled speculation about how the Republican field could ultimately develop. Even so, Vance continues to lead multiple national polls and remains the candidate many political observers expect to beat.

Trump, for his part, has gone out of his way to praise both men.

Speaking recently about Rubio, Trump offered unusually enthusiastic praise.

“Marco is going to go down, I think, as the best secretary of state in history. That’s my opinion. Now, I’m a little prejudiced because I like him,” Trump said.

When discussing Vance earlier this year, Trump struck a different tone but was equally complimentary.

He called the vice president “a brilliant guy” who can be “a little bit tough on occasion.”

“We gotta slow him down just a little bit,” Trump joked.

Then he contrasted the two men.

“Marco does it with a velvet glove, but it’s still a kill,” Trump said, portraying Rubio’s style as quieter but no less effective.

Behind the scenes, both camps are building impressive networks.

Vance has earned the backing of Donald Trump Jr. and maintains close relationships with media personality Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk, who has said Turning Point USA intends to support him in 2028. As finance chair of the Republican National Committee, Vance has also been strengthening relationships with influential Republican donors across the country.

Rubio, meanwhile, continues to enjoy deep support among Florida Republican leaders, influential Hispanic conservatives, and longtime party donors. Some Republican fundraising circles have reportedly expressed reservations about Vance’s friendship with Carlson, creating another dynamic to watch as the race gradually takes shape.

Supporters on both sides are already making their case.

Iowa conservative activist Kelley Koch didn’t hesitate when discussing Vance.

“Print the signs. He’s the heir apparent,” Koch said.

But entrepreneur and podcast host Patrick Bet-David sees the race differently.

“I just think Rubio is ready,” he said.