Republican U.S. Senator Thom Tillis is used to being in a tight spot in campaigns in the swing state of North Carolina, having come from behind in the polls six years ago to clinch his post.
With his home state figuring prominently in Democratsā effort to try to wrest control of the Senate this year, the 59-year-old is back in the hotseat. Tillisā re-election race against Democratic U.S. Army veteran Cal Cunningham is widely considered a toss-up, and millions of dollars are pouring in.
āItās most likely going to be the most expensive race in U.S. history ā¦ Itāll be close,ā Tillis said in an interview.
Leading Democratic and Republican āsuper PACsā that focus on Senate races said in March they are investing a combined $47.4 million in ad buys in North Carolina this year, more than they have planned for any other state so far. Under federal law, super political action committees can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, unlike candidates, but cannot coordinate their efforts with a candidateās campaign.
North Carolina is one of four states ā also including Maine, Arizona, and Colorado ā where election analysts say Democrats have a chance at unseating Republicans in November, giving Democrats a shot at ending the chamberās current 53-47 Republican majority.
Other states, including Montana, Iowa and Kansas, also may be coming into play, leaving even the reticent Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to call the battle for control of the Senate a ādogfight.ā
Republicans will fight hard to protect their majority. They highly value the Senateās power in confirming lifetime judicial appointments, and managed to pick up Senate seats in 2018 even as they suffered heavy House losses.
āThere are more competitive races on the battlefield than Democrats need to win to control the Senate,ā said Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns and has rated 12 Senate seats as competitive.
The fact that 2020 is a presidential election year could also work in Democratsā favor. Republican President Donald Trump is struggling in some of the states he won in 2016, including North Carolina and Arizona, Gonzales said.
Both Trump and Tillis appear to have lost support in North Carolina opinion polls during the coronavirus pandemic, said David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh. The state has more registered Democrats than Republicans, with about a third of voters unaffiliated.
Real Clear Politicsā average of opinion polls from April 5 to May 9 had Trump leading presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 1 percentage point in North Carolina, with Cunningham showing an equally thin lead over Tillis.
BATTLING FOR TRUMP SUPPORTERS, INDEPENDENTS
Cunningham, a 46-year-old former state legislator who grew up in the Republican-leaning town of Lexington, North Carolina, is hoping to attract some Trump voters who have soured on Tillis after he initially opposed the presidentās declaration of an emergency to fund a border wall.
The senator received 19% fewer votes than Trump in the March Republican primary.
Both candidates are focused on healthcare and the economy as the United States grapples with the coronavirus as well as the job losses caused by shutdowns aimed at curbing its spread.
Cunningham says Tillisā responses to the pandemic show he wonāt challenge Trump, while Tillis calls Cunningham a rubber stamp for the Democratic leadership.
Tillis āsat quietly while Donald Trump called it a hoax,ā Cunningham said, referring to Trumpās comments about the coronavirus in late February.
āItās another proof point, in the minds of North Carolinians, that Thom Tillis is too weak to stand up and be the independent voice that weāre looking for here,ā Cunningham said.
Asked about the criticism, Tillis responded that Cunningham also āsat quietlyā when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited San Franciscoās Chinatown to promote businesses facing a drop in tourism early in the crisis.
āNancy Pelosi wasnāt taking it seriously,ā Tillis said. āCal Cunningham obviously wasnāt taking it seriously.ā
(Reporting by Susan Cornwell; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)