MORGAN MURPHY: Trump Brings Glimmer Of Hope For Peace In Europe

As the war in Ukraine rages onward, President-elect Donald Trump brings a glimmer of hope for peace in Europe this Christmas season.

An end to the fighting hinges on three key points: (1) Crimea (2) the Donbas region east of the Dnieper River and (3) NATO membership for Ukraine. Many more issues lurk, but without agreement on these major negotiating points, it is unlikely a peace deal will emerge.

Wars often begin with wild optimism that leads to untenable positions. In 1860, Confederates imagined a “short war,” and after early successes at Fort Sumter and Bull Run thought they would be marching through Philadelphia in a matter of months. In 1941, the Japanese strategized they could knock out the U.S. Pacific fleet, shocking and demoralizing the American public long enough for Japan to consolidate their “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere,” capitalizing on resource-rich territories like Southeast Asia, the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines. In both cases, initial optimism led to eventual disaster.

In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aimed to seize Kiev and roll over the rest of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies predicted he would be successful. Similarly, after an unexpectedly strong defense, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to reclaim every inch of land occupied by Russia. Until as recently as this fall, he was touting a “victory plan” to force Moscow to surrender.

Yet, as it tends to do in conflict, the specter of death clarifies the mind. One thousand days of bloodshed in Eastern Europe has washed away initial optimism, giving way to grim realism on both sides. With the war approaching its third year, the biggest recent change in the dynamic is Trump’s landslide election in November.