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Poll: Vance, Newsom Favorites for Presidential Nominations

If the presidential election was held tomorrow, it appears the matchup would be Vice President JD Vance for the Republicans and California Gov. Gavin Newsom for the Democrats. That is according to a new Yale youth poll…

Sandra Rhodes·Dec 8, 2025·2 min read

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If the presidential election was held tomorrow, it appears the matchup would be Vice President JD Vance for the Republicans and California Gov. Gavin Newsom for the Democrats.

That is according to a new Yale youth poll, which puts Vance as the clear Republican favorite with 51% saying they would vote for him, per Newsmax.

Vance is leads Donald Trump Jr. by 43 points, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis places third at 6%.

However, 79% said DeSantis would likely win the 2028 general election against a Democrat. Seventy-one percent said the same of Vance.

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If President Donald Trump were to hypothetically run for a third term, he would be the favored candidate with 50% support.

In this scenario, Vance comes in at 19% while “other” candidates come in at 5%.

Only 20% of those ages 18-22 and 28% of those 23-29 said they would support Trump in a 2028 GOP primary.

A majority of respondents over 45 said they would back Trump for a third term.

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Poll: Vance, Newsom Favorites for Presidential Nominations — IJR

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said that Vance is the GOP front-runner in 2028.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the leader on the Declaratic side with 25% support.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, (D-N.Y.) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trail with 18%, 16% and 14%, respectively.

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“Unlike in the Republican primary, the Democratic candidates have larger variations in support between different demographic groups, suggesting that candidates have started to develop bases of support,” according to the poll analysis.

“For instance, Ocasio-Cortez leads among Democrats under 35 with 32%. Newsom leads among male (32%), White (27%), and Hispanic (27%) Democrats. Female (24%) and Black (47%) Democrats prefer Harris,” per the analysis.

A separate electability measure found Democrats overwhelmingly viewing Newsom as their strongest general-election prospect, with 85% judging him most likely to prevail over a generic Republican, according to the poll.

Verasight conducted the survey of 3,426 registered voters. This included 1,706 people aged 18-34, between Oct. 29 and Nov. 11. The margin of error is +/- 1.7 points for the full sample.