Republicans Hopeful ‘Historic’ Early Vote Turnout Could Enable Unexpected Swing State Candidate To Flip The Senate

LAS VEGAS, Nevada — Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown has polled behind the Democratic incumbent for his entire race, but the party is hoping a strong early vote turnout will carry him across the finish line.

While the race has narrowed, Brown still trails opponent Sen. Jacky Rosen by around 4%, according to the Real Clear Polling average. Republicans’ unusual early voting lead has them feeling optimistic a victory for former President Donald Trump could mean down-ballot success.

“We’ve got a great shot,” Brown told the 🏢Daily Caller News Foundation at a Las Vegas campaign event on Friday, citing “historic turnout” in early voting.

A veteran who survived with serious burn injuries from an explosion in Afghanistan, Brown calls himself a fighter. He believes he can be the one to hand his party the Senate majority.

Brown was just two points behind Rosen in the most recent Trafalgar Group poll of Nevada voters between Oct. 25 and Oct. 28, narrowing from Rosen’s five point lead earlier in the month.

Republicans have an over 40,000 vote lead in the state between mail ballots and in-person early votes, according to numbers released Monday night. In Clark County, typically known as a “firewall” for Democrats, Republicans are down only around 3,000 votes.

“The rural counties are turning out in a massive number, completely offsetting what has been, you know, the firewall the Democrats used to have in Clark County and Washoe County,” Brown told the DCNF.

Brown event at Clark County GOP offices with RNC Chairman Michael Whatley on Oct. 25. (Credit: Katelynn Richardson/🏢Daily Caller News Foundation)

Despite Democrat efforts to flip Washoe County, Brown said “Republicans are still holding an advantage there.”

Long-time Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston has been stressing that this pattern is unprecedented. He warned on Sunday that Democrats must shift the trend or “carnage ensues.”

“I know people want to keep comparing this year to 2020 or 2022, but at the risk of repeating myself: This is a unicorn year,” Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, wrote Monday on his early voting blog. “We have never seen this.”

In 2022, Republican candidate Adam Laxalt lost to Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by just over 9,000 votes.

Last week, the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund dumped a last-minute $6.2 million into the race for TV, radio and digital ads in an effort to flip Rosen’s seat. Real Clear Polling also changed the race label Oct. 18 from leans Democrat to “Toss Up.”

Brown told the DCNF that people he speaks to at the polls are “enthusiastic.”

“Almost everyone who walked by was wanting to stop and take pictures,” he said. “There’s optimism and hope that you can see. That people see that the American Dream that they feared was at risk is not dead and that hope is right around the corner.”

Sam Brown veterans event with Republican Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton on Oct. 28. (Credit: Katelynn Richardson/ 🏢Daily Caller News Foundation)

Brown visited Reno on Saturday for a Save Women’s Sports rally with Riley Gaines in support of the University of Nevada, Reno Women’s Volleyball team, which decided to forfeit its game against San Jose State University over a male player. At an veterans event Monday, Republican Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton joined Brown to campaign.

“We put a lot of effort into reaching out to our Hispanic community, reaching out to our Asian American Pacific Islander community, reaching out to our black community,” Brown told the DCNF. “This is a campaign for all Nevadans, not just Republicans.”

Brown met on Friday with Asian American and Pacific Islander voters at a Chinese restaurant before heading to an event at the Clark County GOP’s office with Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, where he spoke to volunteers.

Whatley outlined how Brown could be the one who carries Republicans into the majority.

“We know we’re going to win West Virginia. Joe Manchin didn’t even run. That gives us 50,” he said. “Where are we going to get 51? Sam Brown.”

In Pennsylvania, Republicans could pick up a seat in Senate candidate Dave McCormick’s tightening race. The party may also have opportunities in Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan, Whatley said.

“But I’ll tell you what: for my money, our 51st vote is coming right out of Nevada,” Whatley said.

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