SAM KAY: Virginia’s Attorney General Is Red For A Reason

There are several “truths” about Virginia politics that every young buck on the scene learns fast. It’s a commonwealth, not a state. Never forget the Eastern Shore counties. Take Me Home, Country Roads is a song about western Virginia, not the state of West Virginia. And the attorney general is a law-and-order office that leans Republican, even though the state leans blue.

What may sound like Virginia lore is actually rooted in fact. Since 2001, Virginia has held six statewide elections for governor and attorney general. During that stretch Republicans won just two races for governor, but four for attorney general. It would have been five but in 2013 the Republican lost by fewer than 1,000 votes, even as Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the governorship by over 56,000.

In Virginia, voters see the attorney general as the state’s “Top Cop.” A prosecutor who calls balls and strikes on the law, upholds the Commonwealth’s constitution, and stands up for victims of crime. Virginia’s current Attorney General, Republican Jason Miyares, centered his 2021 campaign on public safety, which delivered him the win, and it’s the same message he’s taking back to voters this November.

National NBC News polls dating back to 1993 show Republicans holding a consistent advantage on crime, with their largest margin coming in 2023 at a 26-point lead over Democrats. So even as Virginia has trended blue for governor, Republicans have often carried the AG’s office by leaning into crime and safety issues.

Ticket-splitting has long been a subject of study for political observers. It’s often explained through the “check-and-balance” phenomenon, where voters choose one party at the top of the ticket and the other further down to keep power in check. In Virginia, that’s meant electing a Democrat for governor while backing a Republican for attorney general. This pattern has been common in the Commonwealth’s off-year elections, but in 2024 it surfaced prominently in federal races. This past November President Trump carried Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin while Democratic Senate candidates won in those same states.

That instinct for balance, whether in Washington or Richmond, helps explain why Republicans remain competitive in Virginia’s attorney general race. Paired with the GOP’s long-standing trust advantage on crime, and it gives candidates like Jason Miyares a path to victory in a state Kamala Harris carried by more than five points.